[1] Kelso J,Milne G,Kelly H (2009) Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health 9: 117.
I found an earlier reference (May 2006) in the context of transmission prevention here [0]:
> The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we could quench it by saturating a ring of at-risk population with oseltamivir, achieving 90% coverage and high compliance, and at the same time impose movement restrictions and social distancing—all this depending on the causal virus having an Ro <2·0—is simply fanciful.
[0] https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/jo...
[1] Kelso J,Milne G,Kelly H (2009) Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health 9: 117.