> The case could be made that you should go out because you don't believe the disease is as bad as stated, or that you should stay home because it is.
While I agree with your last sentiment, the scientific facts don't care about what one believes. Arguing against the considered advice of medical experts is counterproductive and absolutely dangerous.
> While I agree with your last sentiment, the scientific facts don't care about what you believe. Arguing against the considered advice of medical experts is counterproductive and absolutely dangerous.
There isn't enough data out there to have an authoritative source of truth on what's happening. That will come in time. Until then, there's opinions from many sources coming at it from all angles -- we saw a paper posted that indicated the mortality rate could be one sixth of the CFR.
There's a few things we do know: CFR decreases over time towards fatality rate, so no matter what, any numbers you see going by now are higher than the final answer will be. TBD how much. We know that so far in Korea the CFR under 29 is 0%. We also know old folks are hit way harder than young folks. We also know the disease is very contageous.
It's not out of the realm of possiblity that we've already seen mass spread of the disease and what we're seeing now in terms of exponential increase is measuring the availability of tests, not spread of disease.
While I agree with your last sentiment, the scientific facts don't care about what one believes. Arguing against the considered advice of medical experts is counterproductive and absolutely dangerous.