I think the core message of Tomas Pueyo's blog post is sound, but he undermines it completely with the number juggling.

He's not a specialist. He's not an expert. This is an entrepreneur who knows how to create viral content. His previous blogpost was "How to deliver a funny speech".

So, I wouldn't accept the details, the number or the graphs he has cobbled together at face value. This is true for pretty much anything that is published on medium.com and doesn't come from a sources verified by experts or officials.

While people are slightly optimistic about China and South-Korea, I think it's far too soon to try and make any detailed forecasts on how the next few weeks will pan out. We simply don't know enough yet. All we know is that this is an infectious disease spreading at a lightning speed. Stay home, and adhere to WHO and health administration protocols. That's all there is to do right now. Anything else is conjecture until this has played out completely in a few weeks time.

That was also around the time that -- according to credible sources -- doctors in China were given a quota of cases that they were allowed to report each day.

I guess we'll see what happens with other countries, and then that can give us a sense of how many patients went unreported in China. Perhaps it was a lot, perhaps it was only a few.