No, it's not, because the data shows us that the mortality rates are low. The sensationalist numbers reported by the media are downright negligent. Yes, in Italy, we're seeing 4% mortality rates because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions.
If you run the math with some of the most optimistic mortality rates (0.7%) and total rates of infection (30%), you still end up 23M deaths, roughly the total number of military deaths from WW2.
Yeah, that's why Italy just locked down the entire country.
This is the first time in recent history that the media has not been sensationalizing anything, and actually has been underreporting the danger, after ignoring the outbreak in China for a month.
>because the folks there have on average 3X as many co-morbid conditions
Except they're also reporting a non negligible number of young people without comorbidies requiring hospitalization. The death rate is about to skyrocket because the hospitals are reaching capacity. Even in Lombardy, which has one of some of better healthcare infrastructure, things are grave.
No nation on Earth has nearly enough surge capacity to a handle 5-15% hospitalization rate which includes people in their late 20s (though rare).
You think this is the one time the media isn't sensationalizing anything? Are you sure that's not just because it aligns with your preconceived notions?
Again, things are bad in Italy, yes, because the north is full of old folks with comorbid conditions.
There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION in the metro area. That's (using the lower bound) 0.7% of which only a 5000 were severe or critical, or 0.045%.
A far cry for 15%. You appear to be off by 3-4 orders of magnitude.
There's no world in which 15% of Italy is going to be in hospital with nCoV-19. Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION in the metro area. That's (using the lower bound) 0.7% of which only a 5000 were severe or critical, or 0.045%.
You are continuing to not understand causes.
The cause of the spread stopping in Wuhan was because China put 46 million people on a fairly draconian lockdown. For a month now. Streets are empty, people don't go to work, etc, etc, etc.
Unless and until a large fraction of the world does the same, the rest of the world should expect exponential growth. Not the exponential decline that Wuhan is experiencing. Furthermore if the rest of the world does not, eventually China will be faced with having to choose between the nightmare of permanent economic disruption due to quarantining the rest of the world or the nightmare of mass casualties from letting the disease run wild.
And I guarantee that if your life was implemented by similar public health measures, you'd be screaming bloody murder.
I'm making two separate arguments. (1) the disease is fairly well contained at the moment due to the actions of the CCP in China -- cases dropped from 80K to 17K there (and global cases are down to 42K from a peak of 58K) and that's good numbers; (2) even if the world got it, it wouldn't be nearly as big a deal as the preppers, doom-sayers and the breathless media are making it out to be. Through a combination of actually pretty low mortality rates and the fact coronaviruses are well enough known (SARS, MERS and of course 15% of the common cold) that a vaccine and potential treatment has a big head start.
61 million folks got swine flu in America and 12,000 people died here alone. So far, 500 people have nCoV-19 and 27 people have died.
Wash your hands, don't lick things outside you shouldn't be licking, stay home if you're sick, and we'll be past this in a few weeks.
On #1, the fact that it is under control in China does not mean that it is under control globally. Nor does there seem to be an appetite for the measures that would fix that.
#2 on current data, I said that the number of potential casualties is on the same order as WW 2. Another poster gave numbers showing that this is true even with the optimistic end of current numbers. You have supplied no data to counter those numbers. Nor have acknowledged that tens of millions dead is worthy of concern.
About the rest, my sister and niece are immunocompromised. I have always had weak lungs. My father-in-law is 89. “We” might be past the epidemic but the odds are high that someone close to me will be dead. I doubt that I am alone.
You are not exactly coming across as being full of sympathy for entirely predictable tragedy.
>Even in Wuhan, there were a total of some 80,000 cases (an overestimate) out of a population of 11 MILLION in the city alone, and 19 MILLION
You are grossly misinformed if you think that number is anywhere near correct. For a multitude of reasons - people weren't being tested, test kits ran out, hospitals turned people away, cause of death listed as pneumonia, bodies burned without being tested.
The Chinese numbers are CCP PR bullshit. Once again they would not shut down the entire GDP for two months over something so benign. They would not close down Mecca - the holiest site in the world for 1-2 billion people - over something so benign.
We'll all find out soon enough. The US is quickly approaching the high derivative portion of the exponential curve.
The reality of the reported numbers are sufficient reason for the various actions that have been taken. There is no need to assume conspiracy and coverup. There is doubly no need to tell people who are using the most widely reported numbers that they are grossly uninformed.
So you're refuting my WHO data with ... speculation that the CCP was lying and other anecdotes? The WHO was overwhelmingly positive in their report about the CCP's willingness to participate and make the tough decisions necessary to contain the virus. China had 81K cases, and they're down to 17K. That's good progress.
