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aggregate demand has recovered

Wow. Ok, I lean left and you lean right so obviously we're going to differ on some things. But, conceptually, you'd think those things would all be values-related things. In this case what you're saying conflicts with my mental model of the world. The basic "reality" that I live in.

I don't have a point to make, just expressing how weird it is to me to see someone write that.




I stand by the reality of my statement.

Here is data on production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

Here is employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

See the disconnect?

Lets focus specifically on Durable Goods, since we have a decent measure of their demand (not just their production). The recovery here is incomplete, but it's we are about halfway from trough to peak.

Durable goods demand: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

Durable goods production: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IPDCONGD

Durable goods employment: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DMANEMP

It doesn't surprise me that what I'm saying conflicts with your model of the world. It conflicts with my old model, and nukes my favorite possible solution (tax cuts) as well. But the data is the data, and all we can do is try to build new models which fit it.

The economy has changed, and our old models don't work very well anymore. We need new models.


we are about halfway from trough to peak

That sounds reasonable. It was the implication of full recovery that sounded crazy to my mental model.


In terms of total production we have fully recovered and grown beyond our peak. It's only industrial production that hasn't fully recovered.




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