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I follow you except for the note about CPI underestimating inflation. There's actually a lot of debate about this (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_In... for an informal look), and I personally think it overestimates it.



It's controversial in the UK too. My colleague, Simon (who used to be the FT's stats editor), writes about it on our data blog:

http://byline.timetric.com/2011/02/14/uk-inflation-bad-decis...

(which has subsequently been picked up by a couple of UK papers.)




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