> If AppAmaGooFaceSoft ever stops hiring, if one day the heads of recruiting at those companies say “Nope, that’s it, we’re done, full house over here” then the ripples in tech salaries will be felt across the whole industry. Salaries will be driven down, because working at AppAmaGooFaceSoft is no longer a bargaining chip. It might cause a tech salary “crash”, where salaries drop way closer to the skilled worker median.
This seems very unlikely. Tech is probably very far from being "solved"; and the minute salaries stop being relatively high, that's when people will stop joining bootcamps and getting CS degrees, instead going back to finance or whatever the hot ticket is at the moment. This will likely cause a dampening effect on tech salaries, cushioning any decline in the short term, and creating a serious talent supply problem in the long term, which will just push salaries even higher.
I think that the truth is, tech is in demand everywhere. Because what tech really is, in many cases, is about improving your processes, automating work, and increasing efficiencies in all sorts of businesses - and that isn't something that has an endpoint. There are still many fields that have barely begun to benefit from what tech has to offer.
I am always actively recruiting mid to senior level candidates out of FANGs. I would say about half of these people are seriously poachable, given the right opportunity. For the other half, their compensation is simply too high to pull them out. If FANG salaries dropped by half, I estimate the number would increase to 80-90%. If venture capital funding dried up such that FANG salaries decreased AND Series A+ startup opportunities dried up, then I'd predict a reversion to founder-heavy garage based startups. Because the one thing that is not going away in the near term is the sheer number of unsolved problems/opportunities in tech.
I think of this statement as less of one that the author considers likely or not and more a way to illustrate the dependencies present in tech salaries.
Not to say your central point is wrong, but this characterization can apply to many industries outside of tech.
You're right that supply responds to demand, but putting that aside there can and will be macro trends in the long term. Will the venture capital frenzy remain forever? Will top firms stock values grow exponentially forever? These questions will have a material effect on engineer salary in the long run
>what tech really is, in many cases, is about improving your processes, automating work, and increasing efficiencies in all sorts of businesses
I wish to nitpick this. I think tech has been used for this purpose extensively, but I'd argue "digital toy" or "ultimate writing tool" are just as valid (and slightly less depressing) statement of purpose for software.
This seems very unlikely. Tech is probably very far from being "solved"; and the minute salaries stop being relatively high, that's when people will stop joining bootcamps and getting CS degrees, instead going back to finance or whatever the hot ticket is at the moment. This will likely cause a dampening effect on tech salaries, cushioning any decline in the short term, and creating a serious talent supply problem in the long term, which will just push salaries even higher.
I think that the truth is, tech is in demand everywhere. Because what tech really is, in many cases, is about improving your processes, automating work, and increasing efficiencies in all sorts of businesses - and that isn't something that has an endpoint. There are still many fields that have barely begun to benefit from what tech has to offer.