Will there be an additional 65 GWh of suitable battery cells available from third-party suppliers globally, at reasonable cost, in such a timeframe?
This seems somewhat doubtful to me, given how strategically important battery cells are for EVs, and how everyone and his dog has announced that they will make an EV.
Exactly 65GWh? I dunno. But a substantial number, yes.
Announcement of EVs doesn't count for much. The last 5 years have seen lots of announcements and not a ton of deployment.
Cylindrical cells (except for the longest range or highest performance vehicles) are nearly commodities. Tesla's early decision to go with cylindrical cells keeps being validated. It's a major risk reduction to be able to switch cell producers without redesigning the whole battery pack or car. Other car companies like Rivian are also using cylindrical cells.
This seems somewhat doubtful to me, given how strategically important battery cells are for EVs, and how everyone and his dog has announced that they will make an EV.