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It's very well known and makes a compelling argument that tech progress has been accelerating since the Stone age.



Well known is irrelevant. "Has been accelerating" is also irrelevant. Will continue to accelerate to something very close to infinity is the relevant part. There are plenty of us who do not find Kurzweil's argument on that topic to be at all compelling.


I agree Kurzweil's hypothesis is well known... within techie/Silicon Valley circles, somewhat like the Singularity -- a related concept -- is common in those circles as well. Regardless, there's no particular weight to Kurzweil's hypothesis, tantalizing as it may seem, and it's not reasonable in my opinion to use it as a measuring stick of other hypotheses as if Kurzweil was a proven and acknowledged authority on this topic.

Likewise, if someone said "human aging and death are unavoidable" this wouldn't be bold just because Kurzweil has written a lot about immortality.


I think his hypothesis deserves more credit than that — many of his predictions have come to pass, and many of those that have, at the time they were predicted, seemed somewhat far fetched since they were firmly in the realm of science fiction.


It doesn't matter. Each prediction has to be weighed on its own merit against ever-evolving reality. Even Einstein didn't bat a thousand.




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