>China will fall
>Saudi will have a violent revolution
Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction.
The truly troublesome part is that predictions about social phenomenon can be self-fulfilling prophesy.
If you basically want to see a bloody revolution instead of a better solution, that actively increases the odds of it happening.
The best the world can hope for Saudi Arabia is the status quo. As authoritarian and barbaric as they are, the problem is, Saudi's internal opposition isn't some liberal freedom lovers – it's much more radical religious fanatics that would turn the country in (in essence) ISIS, but with oil and wealth.
The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately.
>The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately.
I doubt it. Saud family were interested in fighting the Ottomans, as were the British in WW1, and their interests aligned then. And during WW2, once it was found to provide access to oil, it only made sense for the west to make sure a stable regime was established. The US/Brits support the Sauds in whatever they want to do, and the Sauds provide oil and purchase weapons. Keeps the region nice and unstable for future weapons orders and to prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people.
For further proof, the more modern socially liberal Iran was destabilized in favor of a fundamentalist leader by the US for their refusal to play ball:
Who knows what proportion of it is distributed. Money isn’t the only wealth. A high trust society with an open and accountable government is far more “wealth” for the average citizen than getting a check every month.
And if the Saudi king decides to stop the payments or kill you for speaking out against them (see Kashoggi assassination), what good is a few thousand in oil money while the royalty splits the billions with the US.
Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction.
The truly troublesome part is that predictions about social phenomenon can be self-fulfilling prophesy. If you basically want to see a bloody revolution instead of a better solution, that actively increases the odds of it happening.