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Researchers have identified 100 mysteriously disappeared stars in the night sky (sciencealert.com)
189 points by nabla9 on Dec 23, 2019 | hide | past | favorite | 172 comments



My experience with big data analysis immediately leads me to suspect that in a dataset of tens of millions of elements, 100 elements having anomalous behavior can actually be operator error, hardware error, noise, anomalous near-Earth object miscatalogued as a star, &c. The article touches on this possibility: "Another explanation – although very unlikely – is they're all just scratches after all, and never existed to begin with." It's unlikely, but unlikely phenomena become phenomena one expects to see if one "rolls the dice" 10 million times.

But it is still an interesting story and a topic worth exploring, even if subsequent research concludes the team has found 100 smudges on glass.


These are comparisons of deep, long exposure time survey images. They aren't imaging one star at an instant time, but entire fields of them over many minutes to hours, so:

> operator error

would effect the entire image. If it were damage to the film/sensor, scratches etc, it wouldn't look like a star point source with a star like point spread function.

> hardware error, noise

Digital sensors do add noise to an image, but it doesn't occur as bright point sources concentrated in a small area. noise can be removed through statistical analysis, dark frame subtraction, lucky imaging, etc. Dust on the lenses or mirrors aren't in the focal plane and don't resolve to points. Dust on film or sensors would block light, not produce it. Many exposures all over the sky quickly characterize the on sensor defects and other instrument specific information that can be removed from the data.

> anomalous near-earth objects

these are long exposures, if they are anomalous objects, they would have to have very slow apparent motion against the stellar background. satellites and planes would leave trails. balloons would drift with the wind. what would stay basically static through the entire long-exposure against the celestial sphere?

I appreciate your skepticism, I'm just taking the other side of the argument. Thoughts?


im with you. this is astrophysics: there are other lines of evidence to consider: like the missing stars sharing certain properties (color, velocity), suggesting an astrophysical explanation (remember it's not strange for stars to go away. whats new here is how)


> one expects to see if one "rolls the dice" 10 million times.

This study is based on the catalogue of 600 million objects, 60 times more than 10 million times:

"In this latest study they compared 600 million objects in the USNO catalogue with a collection put together by the University of Hawaii's Pan-STARR system."

"In an earlier study Villarroel and her team compared the positions of some 10 million objects"

Emphasis mine.


Ah, good catch. So it's even likelier than I anticipate that some errors of improbable cause were observed.


I'm surprised that given the amount of data people often deal with at work these days, that more people don't have an intuition for how unlikely coincidences happen when you're dealing with vast numbers of things.


>In probability theory, the birthday problem or birthday paradox concerns the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, some pair of them will have the same birthday. By the pigeonhole principle, the probability reaches 100% when the number of people reaches 367 (since there are only 366 possible birthdays, including February 29). However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability with 23 people. These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (excluding February 29) is equally probable for a birthday.

Actual birth records show that different numbers of people are born on different days. In this case, it can be shown that the number of people required to reach the 50% threshold is 23 or fewer.[1] For example, if half the people were born on one day and the other half on another day, then any two people would have a 50% chance of sharing a birthday.

It may well seem surprising that a group of just 23 individuals is required to reach a probability of 50% that at least two individuals in the group have the same birthday: this result is perhaps made more plausible by considering that the comparisons of birthday will actually be made between every possible pair of individuals = 23 × 22/2 = 253 comparisons, which is well over half the number of days in a year (183 at most), as opposed to fixing on one individual and comparing his or her birthday to everyone else's.

From:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem


I agree: I'd believe in this only if a "star" was observed on two or three clearly independent occasions (enough that the relative presence of anomalies could be confidently ruled out), and then not observed further.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nine_Billion_Names_of_God

..they notice that "overhead, without any fuss, the stars were going out."


I very much like the 2 part epic space opera "Pandora's Star" and "Judas Unchained" by Peter F Hamilton.

In it, an Astronomer spots a star that disappears. This star is 1,500 light years away. He travels to another star system (Humanity is a multi-system species) and observes the star again, at just the right moment to see the light from its disappearance. It disappears within a couple of seconds, as does a nearby star. But its infrared output is undimmed.

This kicks off an epic, and I really do mean epic, space opera. Peter F Hamilton is really great at such stories, and I love this pair of books so much that I've read them about a dozen times each.

Highly recommended!


I’ll echo this recommendation. Peter F. Hamilton is firmly my favourite sci-fi author, and that’s a hard spot to take.

The Commonwealth Saga (mentioned by the parent) is followed by The Void Trilogy and then The Chronicle of the Fallers, all set in the same Commonwealth universe. It’s some of the most evocative writing I’ve ever heard the pleasure to read, and the stories told are massive in scale but without seeming lacking as a result.

My e-reader says that my most recent read-through was my 9th, so add that to a number done with physical books and it should give some idea of how good I consider these books!


I read quite a lot of books thanks to suggestions on HN, so my thanks to all giving suggestions!


Yes, it’s a really fun space opera, with lots of silly figures of speech and cringy tropes/stereotypes. The story and world are great enough to recommend it even if you have a hard time with the writing.

And my favorite sci-fi authors are Heinlein and Lem, so calibrate accordingly.


Hi! On Wikipedia it says it‘s a trilogy [0], Misspent Youth being the one you didn‘t mention. Would you recommend starting with the 2nd book in the series?

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_F._Hamilton_bibliograp...


I've not read Misspent Youth. It's not really a part of the following 2 books, I don't know why Wikipedia includes them as a trilogy.

Misspent Youth apparently is set 300 years before the 2 other books, and establishes the setting. The author does a great job of creating the universe in Pandora's Star so I don't think you need to read Misspent Youth.

I'd be interested to hear if you enjoyed the books. If you want, email me at the address in my profile.


Thank you for responding. If I ever get far enough down in my book pile I will let you know :D


I love Hamilton's science fiction, consider this another recommendation folks!


Here's the text of that short story. It's a quick read. I highly recommend it! https://urbigenous.net/library/nine_billion_names_of_god.htm...


I agree, and I'd also recommend Vajra Chandrasekera's story that responds to it and reframes it in postcolonial terms:

"The Negation of the Negation of the Negation" ( http://www.bigecho.org/the-negation-of-the-negation-of-the-n... ).


A book that also uses this theme which I enjoyed a lot: Spin, by Robert Charles Wilson

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/910863.Spin


I love that book. RCW is one of my favorite authors.


My favorite book of the last 5 years or so.


Yeah, that is a nice one indeed!


In Alastair Reynold's "House of Suns" an entire galaxy goes dark, though that happening is not even the main driver of the story.


Theories about the galaxy going dark were also traded as some kind of currency in the story. Definitely one of my favorite books.


He has a new book coming out next month I believe -- one of the few authors I pre-order from...


Just read that book earlier this year. Wish there were more like it!


The Outer Wilds, an indie game released this year, has quite the take on that. Which is about as much as can be said without spoiling it.


Another enjoyable literary excursion on this theme: https://english.lem.pl/works/novels/the-cyberiad/146-how-the...


Thank you -- that was the first thing I thought of when I saw the headline...


From the paper: https://sci-hub.se/10.3847/1538-3881/ab570f

"We show that these objects are redder and have larger proper motions than typical USNO objects." -- Interesting, not sure what that'd imply.

"A particular focus is given to USNO objects that have several detections before vanishing" -- implies that these at least some of these objects are not just detector glitches or scratches or similar, although "Visual checks confirm that indeed the most interesting cases, about 100, are mostly one-time detections in the red band."

"In a separate paper by K. Pelckmans et al. (2019, in preparation). we propose a new tool for handling a large number of images using methods of machine learning." (since people were talking about ML in astronomy)


> Visual checks confirm that indeed the most interesting cases, about 100, are mostly one-time detections in the red band.

So that could be fusion torch flashes. Or maybe weapons.

I wonder if they have spectra for any of these suspects.


Universe v2432134542235788654 Release Notes

=============================================

* Removed ~100 stars to fix bug #9533465222. If your star was affected, please reach out to customer support.


There is this yellow dwarf G2V star I have developed an emotional affinity to. Could we white-list it so it won't disappear for a couple million years?


Sorry, but using the term dwarf is against Universe project Code of Conduct. Please use "yellow little person G2V star" next time.


#9533465222 closed as not a bug. Those objects were implemented in the documentation only and were autocorrect artifacts.


To be fair, if the stars did disappear then a bunch of starchart repos on GitHub will need updating.


Have your tried turning it off and back on again?


... three times... [Oldy but goody http://thewebsiteisdown.com/ ]


Customer support, when we applied the latest upstream patch we notice E=MC^2+0.001. Please advice.


Please upgrade to premium service to get an answer.


Please reread section 2.1.1 of the manual, covering the cosmoillogical constant.


I was reminded of a great start of a sci-fi novel:

“The star vanished from the centre of the telescope’s image in less time than a single human heartbeat. There was no mistake, Dudley Bose was looking right at it when it happened. He blinked in surprise, drawing back from the eyepiece. “That’s not right,” he muttered.

He shivered slightly in reaction to the cold air around him, slapping gloved hands against his arms. His wife, Wendy, had insisted he wrap up well against the night, and he’d dutifully left the house in a thick woollen coat and sturdy hiking trousers. But as always when the sun fell below Gralmond’s horizon, any warmth contained in the planet’s thinner-than-average atmosphere evaporated away almost immediately. With the telescope housing open to the elements at two o’clock in the morning, the temperature had dropped enough to turn his every breath into a streamer of grey mist.

Dudley shook the fatigue from his head, and leaned back in to the eyepiece. The star field pattern was the same, there had been no slippage in the telescope’s alignment, but Dyson Alpha was still missing. “It couldn’t be that fast,” he said.

He’d been observing the Dyson Pair for fourteen months now, searching for the first clues of the envelopment which would so dramatically change the emission spectrum. So far there had been no change to the tiny yellow speck of light one thousand two hundred and forty light-years away from Gralmond which was Dyson Alpha.

He’d known there would be a change; it was the astronomy department at Oxford University back on Earth that had first noticed the anomaly during a routine sky scan back in 2170, two hundred and ten years ago. Since the previous scan twenty years earlier, two stars, a K-type and an M-type three light-years apart, had changed their emission spectrum completely to non-visible infra red. For a few brief months the discovery had caused some excited debate among the remnants of the astronomy fraternity about how they could decay into red giants so quickly, and the extraordinary coincidence of two stellar neighbours doing it simultaneously. Then a newly settled planet fifty light-years farther out from Earth reported that the pair were still visible in their original spectrum. Working back across the distance, checking the spectrum at various distances from Earth allowed astronomers to work out that the change to both stars had actually taken place over a period of approximately seven or eight years and was simultaneous. Given that speed, the nature of the change ceased to become a question of astronomy; stars of that nature took a great deal longer to transform themselves into red giants."

-- Peter F. Hamilton. Pandora's Star


Sorry, Peter F. Hamilton's ideas are awesome but his writing--not so much. He desperately needs an editor to chop out 1/3 to 2/3 of his words.

I'm reminded of an old Bugs Bunny cartoon: Detective: "Okaaaay, start at the beginning." Bugs: "In the beginning, the Earth was without form and void ..." Detective: "You can skip ahead a bit, thanks ..."


Maybe he gets paid by the word?


That's why I hated Dickens' novels.


Ayup. "Tale of Two Cities" is a wonderful book with a sub-par book sandwiched in the middle.


Seems he’s doing ok, even without your writing advice...


My immediate thought as well. But honestly, I would only call the first book of the trilogy great; towards the end, it's starting to feel like a drag, with quite boring walls of text describing alien landscapes and cities that serve no purpose for the plot. And the whole Ozzie plotline, while certainly entertaining and engaging, seems just like a distraction.

Brilliant portrayal of power and intrigue though.


Commonwealth Saga is two books, not a trilogy. But it is certainly long enough to make a trilogy!

I personally was engaged for the entirety of both books, but found the trilogy set in the same universe (The void trilogy) dragged a bit in the third book.


There's two books (the Commonwealth Saga), an additional three (the Void Trilogy) set in the same universe, and a follow-on pair of books (Chronicle of the Fallers).


I can't understand what's meant by 'simultaneous' for observations of two stars made from different locations. I also can't conceive a geometry where the 'newly settled planet' could be asked about the disappearance and report that they're still visible.


The books assume FTL travel as a precondition of human colonisation of other worlds.


The light from a star moves at lightspeed. His books have FTL drives. You want to see into the past? Hop a starship away from whatever is of interest and then have another look. You're seeing it at an earlier time than your original observation. Repeat as many times as you want. (Note, however, that each hop puts you farther away and thus makes it fainter. Eventually it will be too dim for your instruments.)


Also made me think of Stephen Baxter's Ring...with those photino birds that drain stars.


I love these books. LOVE them. I've read them about a dozen times each.

I highly highly recommend them.


Probably the denizens of the next star over noticed that the star in question had inhabited planets, and turned it off against the possibility they might, otherwise, someday become a threat.

This is a candidate for the Great Filter: interstellar civilizations that come into contact destroy one another.


This is a plot element in The Dark Forrest [0] book. Otherwise called the Dark Forrest theory [1]

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dark_Forest

[1] https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory...


The Dark Forest is a related idea, in which mature civilizations are not all destroyed by contact with their equals, but lurk about, in ambush. The mutual demolition alternative seems simpler and more reliable, and possibly more consistent with the evidence.

Dropping a black hole, even a smallish one, into a star would seem to eliminate the central pressure needed to sustain fusion, and turn it off pretty suddenly, by astronomical timescales.


Dropping a black hole into a star would actually cause its power output to increase; the radiation from matter accreting onto the black hole provides sufficient power to prevent the star's collapse. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-star for more details on the physics.


"Such a star would have to be at least 1,000 solar masses..."

Although, it doesn't really make sense. Like a puncture in the wall of a pressure vessel, the pressure at the event horizon would be zero. It is hard to see how an accretion disc could form in pure plasma at such density. The fluid dynamics of plasma under such conditions is entirely intractable, so it is also hard to believe in any claimed solution.

But temporarily multiplying the output of a star might work just as well to eliminate a pesky alien infestation.


Reading the paper, it appears they treat the plasma as a gas, relying on acoustic pressure interactions that don't happen in a plasma.

If I understood correctly, and that is conventional practice in calculations about black hole accretion discs, there is a great deal of nonsense published on the topic.


Also Winter World (and the other two books in the trilogy). Fun read. Very similar in style to the The Expanse.


Personally I found the style very different between the expanse and the three body problem trilogy.

The expanse seems “lighter” or less hard. The last book, deaths end i found to be particularly “hard sci-fi”.



Just a tip - forest has one ‘r’ :)


Since everything in physics tells us that FTL travel is impossible (as far as I am aware), then when a civilization detects signs from another civilization in another solar system it knows that 1) that civilization was advanced enough to produce signals into space light years ago, and 2) by the time it reaches it at sublight speeds (hundreds, possibly thousands of years) it will be more advanced still. That means your extermination mission might be facing a technologically superior enemy with home field advantage.


This may be where intuition and cosmic scale don’t align. The Milky Way is very old and is ~100k light years in diameter.

Say you are a few million year old civilization and you detect radio from a civilization 100k light years away takes 500k years for you fleeting arrive. You are still millions of years ahead in technology. If you are a stagnant civilization you probably stay home cause the other side would overtake you, but then again that motivation to get to them as early as possible. In any event presumably as your fleet get closer you would have a better idea of the technology difference and can just do a U turn


Civilizations that come into contact will tend to be those that are closer together, particularly if they make any effort to be inconspicuous.

The longer they go without contact, the wider their reach, and the greater their odds of contact.

We might suppose that the technology necessary to obliterate another civilization is arrived at early, and is hard to counter despite long subsequent development. Alternatively, civilizations that succeed in suppressing weaker ones eventually meet their match.


Unless you assume each solar system is a threat, so you proactively send automated machines to each solar system that can adapt to the threat as needed. They might also not care if there is or isn't life there and just want to build Dyson spheres everywhere.


The argument for Dyson spheres is extremely weak. If you are powerful enough to build one, you are also powerful enough to dismantle a nearby gas giant and fuse that.


The energy required to dismantle and fuse a gas giant would be tremendous - there's definitely an opportunity-cost involved.

Compared to a Dyson sphere - which only requires a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the energy absorbed to build and launch the orbiting platforms that make-up the sphere.

You can "ignite" a gas-giant by maneuvering a black-hole into position inside the gas-giant, but (as far as we know) there are far more gas-giants than there are black-holes, and the distances involved are tremendous (nearest black hole: 3,000ly, nearest gas-giant: 6 to 9e-5 light-years). It just doesn't strike me as feasible or even worthwhile even if it was feasible.

Maybe as the heat-death of the universe approaches, the last band of remaining humans (don't ask) try to ignite the gas-giants to keep the lights on?


There is no need to "ignite" the gas giant. You just skim off hydrogen and fuse it in magnetic confinement chambers anywhere you need power. Gravitational confinement is for amateurs.

We don't build bonfires in our cars, as used to be done in steam locomotives; we oxidize carbon differently, and generate a pressure differential by entirely different means. Why should advanced aliens do things the clumsy way?

Anyway there isn't enough material in a solar system to build one. If you can get elsewhere to gather the stuff, why bother to bring it back?


Which is why the expected strategy is to seed all systems with autonomous berserkers. ... and/or have them meandering from star to star to report/destroy civilizations in their infancy upon detection of radio signals.

You'd need trillions of them per galaxy, but that's well within the capability of a type III civ.

It reminds me of the extra solar object detected a couple years ago that buzzed the Earth and then mysteriously ACCELERATED out of the system.

So assuming we were just detected and assuming there's a berserker in the system already (likely in an outer orbit) that would imply we have only a couple decades left.


This is explored in the novel The Forever War. Since the war had multiple battlefront (with vast distances between them) an attacker never knew if the particular branch of enemy was already ahead with their technology.


This read very similar to the "Three-body problem" trilogy, specifically the second book "The Dark Forest"


I was thinking of the first moment when the bubble appears in quarantine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine_(Egan_novel)


For those that wonder: this is (one) of the plots of the "Three body problem" trilogy. It's a really great book, I really recommend it !


The entire series is amazing. In addition, he has a collection of short stories 'The Wandering Earth'. If you want to see a movie loosely based upon the ideas of one of those shorts stories, look up the movie 'The Wandering Earth' on Netflix.

Just to give some background, I watched that movie not realizing what it was based off of, just knowing it was a chinese sci-fi. And I remember being amazed at how big the ideas were and thinking China must have a culture of exceptional sci-fi writers. Afterwards I did some research and realized who it was.

Cixin Liu is the author and he's so good at big ideas. I can't recommend his stuff enough.

edit:

link

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+wandering+earth+cixin+liu


The Wandering Earth was one of the worst movies I have ever seen. Poor writing, no plot, bad science, melodramatic acting, and propagandistic messages throughout.


The ideas in it were amazing. I can understand people who can't look past the execution to see the underlying ideas.

One of the things it did really well was the idea that it takes everyone pulling in the same direction to be effective.


it is indeed a horrible film, let's hope the three body series is not similarly butchered


I don’t understand. Every one of those negative traits applies to The Three Body Problem as a novel, except for acting, in my opinion.

I realize there exist people who like sci-fi and think The Three Body Problem is good, but... I can’t understand what they see in it. The last 50 pages or so was at least an ok short story...


Last 50 pages of the first volume?

The last 50 pages of the third volume were not worth the paper.


Let's hope, but I'm not holding my breath. Officials hold far too much sway over Chinese filmmakers, making it near impossible to create a quality film.


I have been waiting for the 3 body problem film. Last I checked it was delayed, with just the trailer released.

Will check out the wandering earth. Thanks.


What if these stars are disappearing as part of an orderly shut down procedure of some grand simulation, taking millennia from our perspective.

Civilizations would get to a level of science where they find out and even if they could reach us before the reset, there'd be no point. Like when you're playing a video game and you get "server shutdown in 30 minutes", you log off right away or mess around until it happens.

The Great Filter is only limited by our imagination and doesn't even have to involve us at all.


Seem to vaguely remember a Twilight Zone or similar along those lines.

There's a planet that's trying to achieve peace. They're in the middle of a cold war, looking rather like earth, half hour ends with the failure of talks and a nuclear war. Camera pulls back to two alien teens playing an intergalactic arcade game, now showing "game over".

Perhaps the one playing the sim got bored and started star killing their own solar systems.


In SimEarth, there was always the temptation to destroy everything with asteroid strikes...


Arthur Clarke, in his throwaway short story The Nine Billion Names of God, had an obscure cult that believed humanity's, and the universe's, purpose was to write down all of God's names. They are well along before they rent a computer with a line printer, and finish the job in a few weeks. Then the stars start to go out.


This reminds me vaguely of the community science project I contributed to a few years ago trying to investigate why epsilon Aurigae [0] goes dim every ~27 years. It turns out to be a likely dust disk of an orbiting body that dims the main star and happens to be directly along the line of sight with Earth.

I imagine there are a lot of possible ways a line of site occlusion could cause a dim star to appear as not existing at all, and as another commenter mentions, maybe the original measurement was some sort of amplification in the first place.

Space is damn cool.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_Aurigae


Could it be gravitational microlensing? Maybe the apparent magnitude of the missing stars was amplified by an intervening massive object just as the older pictures were taken.


That seems likely to this amateur.

Lensing could also move the (perceived) location of a star.


Simply drifting behind a gas cloud seems more likely.

Im not sure how much lensing happens within our own galaxy.


"there seem to me too many anomalies to explain all the vanished stars as known natural phenomena. In their current paper, the authors themselves discuss the possibility that they're seeing unknown phenomena, or that the vanished "stars" could be relics of technologically advanced civilizations, particularly the theoretical mega-engineering projects known as Dyson spheres."

What about the possibility that the inclusion of those stars in those 1950's star catalogs was a result of human error, instrument error, or scientific fraud?


This is a comparison of images, not just catalogs of sources in images. If you look at the image in the linked article, you can easily spot one of the stars that has "gone missing".

Looking at the brightness of the source that went missing, it is hard to suggest instrumental error - much fainter stars remain detectable in both epochs.

And fraud, really? Who would bother to fake stars in catalogs and plates in the 1950s, and why?


>it is hard to suggest instrumental error - much fainter stars remain detectable in both epochs.

I think if there is an instrumental error it would more plausibly be the opposite. That the bright stars are artifacts in the images.


So they could identify who plagiarized their catalogs?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fictitious_entry


Well you could, but why would you want to? Other than video games which didn’t exist in 1950, I can’t think of any reason someone would use a star catalogue in a for-profit scenario.


Should be a relatively simple matter to cross-reference against other photographs (potentially from other observatories) to identify whether the same star appears multiple times.


Or included as copyright traps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trap_street


Cartographers used to fight plagiarism with fictitious entries. Is it possible stellar cartographers did the same?


Cartographers get paid to make and sell unique branded maps, and they differentiate themselves by quality to make significant sales.

Stellar cartographers aren't selling unique branded star catalogs, so there is no reason to complain if someone has copied your data. The incentives are completely different.



Ah, a star catalogue equivalent of non-existent streets in a map that are only drawn there to prove copyright infringers. Somehow I was expecting to read about a stellar equivalent of a D&D mimic.


I bet some of them are moving a little faster than we expected them to and are just not where we last saw them. Creepy nonetheless.


I don't think that's likely. It takes the closest star 5,000 years to move the distance our moon covers in the night's sky.

Video of ten years worth here: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10160104518220167


I was thinking that, but if these objects are much closer than expected, small physical motion could be a large angular motion. I don’t know if that would be enough to explain them away.


Maybe, indeed the article says:

> It could also be a dull star we assumed was farther away and has just moved too far to be noticed.



Thank you! I've been searching all afternoon for this one.


Ha, now I’m scared. Thanks.


In case there's any interest, this Archiv page includes a PDF. https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.05068

"We visually examine the images for a subset of about 24,000 candidates, superseding the 2016 study with a sample ten times larger. We find about ∼100 point sources visible in only one epoch in the red band of the USNO which may be of interest in searches for strong M dwarf flares, high-redshift supernovae or other catagories of unidentified red transients.

Comments: SETI meets time domain astronomy."


The paper:

"The Vanishing and Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations Project. I. USNO Objects Missing in Modern Sky Surveys and Follow-up Observations of a "Missing Star"" Beatriz Villarroel et al 2019 December 12, The Astronomical Journal, Volume 159, Number 1

https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ab570f


Something in the foreground that was originally misclassified as a star?


This is my thought. I suspect these are asteroids. The tell is whether the stars show up on plates, say, a year later. If so, then they're not asteroids.

However, that seems to have been ruled out in the Astronomical Journal article:

"Given the exposure time of 45 minutes of the POSS-I E red image, if our object were an asteroid that quickly moved out of the field, it would have left a stripe (and not be point-like)." (Page 5)

"The exposure time for the red image is about 50 minutes. If the object were an asteroid and was quickly moving through the field of the red image in a few minutes, then it would be elongated on the plate. However, this object is point-like. In addition, the candidate is anomalously red and not seen in the blue band, which further decreases the likelihood that it is an asteroid." (Page 13)


That doesn’t rule out foreground objects at all. Kuiper belt objects are distinctly red, as we learned from New Horizons, and so far away that they wouldn’t noticeably move over 45min.


The question is whether such Kuiper objects would show up on the old POSS plates. I don't know enough about that, so I yield to those who do. It certainly seems a more plausible explanation.


Could it be that a group of stars was passing by between us and the stars that remained when the first picture was taken?


Wellp, my crazy sci-fi thought:

There are patches in the sky.

( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lexx )


While an interesting article, I wish people didn't feel the need to try to make things out to be more 'exciting' than they likely are. I think it takes away a lot from the real reasons to be excited. This seems to be common in astronomy journalism.

"Hmm, we've observed something weird. What could be some reasonable explanations? We'll dedicate 3 to 4 sentences on those then spend the rest of the article talking about Dyson Spheres and extraterrestrial star ships."


Ok, we've changed the URL from https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/stellar-mystery-how... to a different popular article that seems to dwell on topic somewhat longer before the aliens show up.


This article escalated quickly from dots on a photograph to discussing the viability of Dyson spheres.


Unfortunately in some cases - like this one - the original paper is highlighting the 'aliens' hypothesis, so the journalists can hardly be blamed for running with it.

From the abstract:

The implications of finding such objects extend from traditional astrophysics fields to the more exotic searches for evidence of technologically advanced civilizations

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ab570f#...


Do you know a better article that dives into the reasonable explanations and only spends 1-2 sentences on "maybe it's aliens"?


For those a little sceptical of traditional dyson spheres, like the linked article, there are many more ways to envision such a sphere. My personal favourite is a kind of computonium dust layered loosely around the star, like that found in Charles Stross' Accelerando.


True, but Dyson spheres should be easily visible in the infrared, and I know searching for them is set as an undergrad project by at least one IR astronomy professor. So, I’d expect them to be spotted by now if they are widespread.


Apparently Dyson spheres can be undetectable with IR telescopes:

https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-s...


It seems silly for us to make a bunch of rigid conclusions about an unimaginably high technology solar-system scale megastructure.


We could make one with known tech, it would only take a few thousand years thanks to exponential population growth and humans being universal constructors.

We’d expect to see Dyson swarms’ heat signatures because of the laws of thermodynamics. If super-advanced aliens can avoid or circumvent thermodynamics, all bets are off.


The laws of thermodynamics don't forbid radiating heat in a directed manner, right?


I think you’re only able to do that if you’re not in thermal equilibrium.

I’m not a trained physicist, so I’m not 100% certain about this, however the phrase “there is no stealth in space” seems to come up a lot in the stuff I read, and that specifically excludes directing heat away in specific directions.


I'd think you could do something like have a deep, V-shaped hole with radiators at the bottom, and really good insulation / conductors throughout the sphere to funnel heat into that radiator. Anything radiating in the wrong direction would just get picked back up and re-directed through the system again.

Point that V into deep intergalactic space and buy yourself a few hundred million years.


I don't think it is crazy silly to expect that, before a dyson sphere is built, dyson rings would be built. I think that's where the distinct IR signature is coming into play.


It's the whole shebang. Basic thermodynamics. Suppose you did perfectly insulate... anything. Any system that is also generating and consuming power. That means no energy is escaping. That means all energy being produced is turning into heat on the inside. That means the inside is going to become... unpleasant. In not necessarily all that large an amount of time on human time scales, let alone cosmological ones.

A Dyson Sphere has to radiate.

As ben_w said and I fully agree with, if you're going to hypothesize a level of technology that can somehow get around that, that's fine and all, but if you're going to invoke magic, you really haven't got any justification for stopping at such a particular place. They could be aliens that have figured out how to shunt energy into the 5th Dimension instead of radiating it out into our universe... but they might also just be elves casting magic spells. Intuitively, it may seem like there's a lot of difference between those two things, but... there really isn't so much.


It isn't unimaginable that they can control the direction of the radiation. It could be directed away from the galactic plane, for example.


Perhaps the radiation can be directed. Who's to say it would be omnidirectional?


Has anyone used machine learning to help identify and track stars in the data set they mention? I'd love to contribute to space exploration as a software engineer, and building systems to analyze the data seems like one promising approach.


Take a look here:

https://arxiv.org/search/?query=astronomy+machine+learning&s...

Plenty of ML work being applied to astronomy. Much of the code is open source too so you can dive right in and contribute.

Here's a recent survey you might start with: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.02934.pdf


It doesn't seem like you need any sort of machine learning. Just a telescope hooked to a computer that tracks changes in the night sky over time. Like 2 weeks ago there was a magnitude 7 star in this spot and now it is magnitude 9.


I had this exact thought as I was reading this. I wonder if ML could be used to speed up the process and look for anomalies - both appearances and disappearances. Someone in our team did his PhD in machine vision. Will have a chat with him to hear his thoughts.

Anyone else have any thoughts? Also where could these images be accessed?


I'm not sure what advantage ML would bring to this particular task, but the recent GAIA survey dataset has very accurate readings of position and motion in 3D space for all visible objects and it would be interesting to see if there are any anomalies.



Fermi style estimate: 600M stars with live spans from several billions to several millions years, say average - 600 million years, thus 1 star per year got to go. 50 years - 50 stars.


Not a single mention of Katamari Damacy in this whole thread? Players of that game all know it was because of the King of All Cosmos and his clumsiness!


What do the stars look like in 3d space? Do they form some sort of wavefront?


Are the stars vanishing in the sky or just in the data?

Are stars also appearing?


They are photographic plates, then vs. now. This cannot be dismissed as simple user error. Especially in 1950 where we did not have to contend with this massive population of artificial satellites. Other solutions must be sought.

What is not clear to me is whether one can find these missing stars on other plates taken at a later time. If so, then this lends credence to some sort of stellar phenomenon. The paper rules out asteroids due to the long exposure times of the images, which would have turned any objects moving in our solar system into a smear rather than a point source.


What chemistries are we looking at, near-Earth phenomena might be responsible for the appearance of one-time "stars" on a photographic plate. I'm thinking cosmic-rays but I'm sure there are a tonne of potential sources.

Perhaps also different wavelength star sources too? Or are they doing the observations across the whole spectrum (that's probably common nowadays?).


It’s not aliens.


It's always not aliens until the day it is.


Somebody is building Dyson Spheres, obviously.


Flip burn?


The simulation is shutting down.


Or maybe some memory got corrupted by a passing cosmic ray (out in the realverse).


Dyson spheres completed baby !


Something out there low on power and needs recharging


Jim Carrey almost got hit by a spot. Someone to change the light bulbs quickly!


No... it was indeed not a dream. We really did it. The King of All Cosmos really has done it. A sky full of stars... We broke it. Yes, We were naughty. Completely naughty. So, so very sorry. But just between you and Us, it felt quite good ️


Dust on the optics or on the film during development.


Please don't post comments without reading the article first. It just wastes everyone's time.

That short list was visually inspected, excluding around 18,000 images that were messed up by flaws or artefacts. Lastly, the team removed images where the missing star was towards the edge of the field, just to reduce risk of any false positives.

One final sweep using yet another method for comparisons removed other possible flaws in data collection, or unclear results. That left 100 dark shadows where a star once shone.


Open and shut case! You should apply as a consultant.


I’m guessing this is related to rising co2 and climate change. Dampens out what we can see.


What if these aren’t stars that are disappearing but instead the appearances and disappearances of wormholes that are either allowing us to see to another place in space where that star is or perhaps a wormhole blocking where that star previously was for us and we are now looking into another section of space where a star is not?


While fun to think about, I think it is hard to go anywhere, scientifically, from such a proposition. How would you disprove it?


Hmm haven’t thought of how to disprove it but there is a theory about measuring the red shift[0] around the “object” in this example the wormhole

[0] https://www.livescience.com/64033-shape-of-a-wormhole.html


I am not a physicist, but I would assume the laws of thermodynamics would require a wormhole to emit waste heat or some kind of detectable signature. Otherwise, that would imply a perfectly efficient system, and that can't exist.


Would the heat expelled be bright enough to be picked up in this type of imagery? Can energy be expelled in ways not visible to these types of devices possibly? From other comments it appears that a lot of errors would be hard to produce this issue. I’m curious if they should try imaging the stars in another sort of way than the past and present catalogues have done in order to possibly capture this any sort of anomalies that we may not currently be aware of


>Would the heat expelled be bright enough to be picked up in this type of imagery?

I would assume so. It probably takes a lot of energy to rip open a hole in spacetime, much less keep it open, and the only things we know of that can do anything like that are black holes. But unlike black holes, a wormhole wouldn't have an event horizon (otherwise you wouldn't be able to go in and come back out) so all of that energy can't be captured, it has to radiate somehow (as it does even with black holes as Hawking radiation.)

Also, the endpoints may have their own accretion disks or there may be red or blue-shift effects that may be detectable, due to the relativistic effects of the endpoints and dark energy expansion.

Basically, this seems like a "stealth in space" problem, and the consensus is that there "ain't no stealth in space[0,1]."

Space is very, very empty and very, very uniform in temperature, as well as being an insulator because it's a vacuum... anything warmer than cold space itself is going to be hot enough to be noticed. The second site linked there mentions that it would be possible to detect a Space Shuttle using its thrusters from across the solar system with current technology. A wormhole big enough to see an entire star through should definitely be giving off something.

>Can energy be expelled in ways not visible to these types of devices possibly?

Not without using more energy and generating more heat. You can't escape the laws of thermodynamics.

>I’m curious if they should try imaging the stars in another sort of way than the past and present catalogues have done in order to possibly capture this any sort of anomalies that we may not currently be aware of.

I'm sure they've put a lot more effort into considering reasonable alternatives than you or I have. But AFAIK, many models of wormholes exist in various physics models, and require exotic matter with negative mass (also only known to exist in theory) to allow any sort of traversal at all, so it's not surprising that astronomers haven't tried ruling them out since at the moment we don't even know if they exist or, if they do, what properties they have.

[0]http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/spacewardetect....

[1]https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/23313/stea...


"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the Truth" -Sherlock Holmes

It seems like now might be the perfect time, for the price of a single space telescope, to build an exa-scale computer capable of simulating every extreme astrophysical event.

Technosignature "clues", and all probable causes could be instantly classified. It's now also possible to add gravity waves and neutrinos to the simulation ;)


>"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the Truth" -Sherlock Holmes

This axiom works in the fictional universe of Sherlock Holmes, where it's guaranteed that the protagonist will know all of the variables with perfect unbiased clarity and can, therefore, eliminate all unnecessary possibilities and solve the case.

But in the real universe, one often cannot "eliminate the impossible," because one cannot always know everything that is possible, or where ones assumptions are wrong.

>It seems like now might be the perfect time, for the price of a single space telescope, to build an exa-scale computer capable of simulating every extreme astrophysical event.

This is a good example of what I mean. We don't know what the set of all extreme astrophysical events contains, or what their nature is (ex: dark matter and dark energy) and we're constantly discovering new events and phenomena. If we could perfectly simulate the universe in this manner, we wouldn't need to.

And this is why, despite many fields of science already spending far more than 'the price of a single space telescope' to simulate everything from the Big Bang to biology and neurons to particle collisions, "instant classification of everything" isn't possible.

That's just not a thing that computers can do outside of science fiction.


But "possible / impossible" seems in itself to be a really useful classifier!

Perhaps not worthy of exa-scale computing resource allocation. When it could be put to better use in say, nuclear fusion instability prediction. And with the qualifier "possible" conditioned on "known astrophysics by humans in the early 21st Century". But still an interesting tool for likelihood candidate detection.

And it still seems constrained to me at least (not a professional astronomer) by the scale of astrophysical phenomena which would be detectable here across the vast expanse of space. It could be an infinite set, certainly.

But so far we have cataloged only a handful of significant sources of, in the case of gravitational wave interferometry, bursts: black holes, quasars, pulsars, neutron stars...

https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/page/gw-sources




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