>Placing the head of Google, which contributes more than 99% of Alphabet’s sales, at the helm of it could call into question the entire purpose of Alphabet
I think this gives a false impression of the value of the non Google bits of Alphabet
Currently the market cap of Alphabet is $924bn and "Waymo is worth about $105 billion" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-27/waymo-val...)
which would make that 11% of the valuation and probably other bits of other bets are worth something too.
The market cap of Waymo is $0 because it has no market cap.
[edit: note that the parent comment originally spoke to the `market cap' of Waymo before an edit, giving context to this reply]
An analyst independently made up a number, likely to justify an outsized Google target number. There have been rumors that Google will seek outside investments in Waymo that might legitimize some valuation, but they haven't.
And for now Waymo's revenue is estimated to be $5M. While Google's revenue is about $160,000M.
So I don't think they're giving a false impression of anything. Google has been pouring enormous sums of Adword cash into Waymo and it's still a stuttering business ten years later.
Waymo is in the value creation phase, business/marketing/analysts may not value it as much but there is a goldmine under it.
Waymo may not be a revenue behemoth currently but there is immense value there not only to self-driving but to maps improvement and more.
I am not a fan of software patents but they have surpassed Toyota in patents [1] and there are hundreds of patents from Waymo [2].
Everyday in Arizona Waymo vehicles you see them on every block.
The value extractors may not like not being able to extract value yet, but the product, research and value creation is very high and contributes today to improving Google product offerings outside of Waymo such as Maps [3].
Waymo has waymo value than is being extracted because it is still emerging from the product value creation nebula that business/marketing/analysts can't see and don't value as much as product/engineering/creative people.
Some analyst at Morgan Stanley made up that $100B number. It has ZERO meaning and no one should take it seriously. The market cap of a company is what investors are willing to pay for it. Given that Alphabet wholly owns Waymo, there is no way the market is implicitly valuing Waymo at $100B given the present value of Google's advertising business and Alphabet's market cap.
Money making products don't start making efficient money day one. Value creation in this area takes time and it is not quick when dealing with physical/driving products. The patents alone will probably be worth more than the effort.
Google is a data/information company and you are completely disregarding the impact Waymo has on that especially for the Maps product.
Waymo is also already a market leader in their space.
Just because it isn't registering big enough revenues to McKinsey level value extraction only MBAs like CEO Sundar Pichai and Wall Street doesn't mean anything. Most of those in that space have no idea how to create value, only extract it.
This type of 'it isn't making money' thinking is similar to how Jeff Bezos at Amazon was attacked for putting all profits back into R&D, or how Elon Musk at Tesla/SpaceX pushes products, or even when Jobs came back to Apple. The bean counters do not understand value creation and do not have product/engineering/creative mindsets.
What product/engineering/creative people do is value creation that create the engines for 'making money', the engine doesn't just pop in, there is a concerted effort of play, production, design, creativity, engineering, crafting and refinement that takes value creation to get that engine running which results in value extraction.
The business/marketing/managers should just stay out of the engine room and just make sure there is enough runway.
The product before the sales/marketing is key. A product of value can always be sold or marketed. You can't sell/market your way to a product.
Amazon retail is still a low margin, low profit business and is not a good example.
AWS on the other hand is printing money.
Google hasn’t had a non advertising based hit besides maybe Android since it’s inception and even that has only made $23 billion a year in profit from its inception until the Oracle trial where the number was revealed.
The low margin e-commerce led to massive innovations and improvements including their services architecture that became their biggest product and the first to market in the cloud.
AWS was created out of the continual re-investment by Bezos back into Amazon.
Amazon also has many acquisitions from it and associated to all their businesses: IMDB, Twitch, Zappos, Whole Foods, etc.
Google with search, maps and mobile won some intense battles via innovation and a better product in many cases. Google became the biggest OS on mobile with Android and beat out Microsoft that really should have been better positioned and won (Windows Phone was probably better as well). Google also beat Microsoft at their own Office game and storage with Drive, Docs, etc. That was huge. Mobile is a massive victory within the last decade, search the one previous, others in play. Those wins shouldn't be discounted.
> only made $23 billion a year in profit from its inception
Yep, only $23 billion, horrible. /s
Microsoft also gets a chunk of that with their Android used mobile patents [1].
In a way I wish Microsoft didn't get a chunk of Android devices and instead we had three competitive mobile platforms. Android is fine but it isn't the best development platform, iOS and Windows Phone both better (was in the case of Windows Phone), Android was just positioned well and timed right.
Google didn’t “beat” Microsoft at Office by any definition.
As far “winning” mobile. $23 billion in 7 years and they still pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the primary search engine on Apple devices. Apple has made more money from Google than Google has made from Android.
Android definitely didn’t “win” against Apple. The entire Android ecosystem is a profitless race to the bottom.
As far as Google Drive, like Jobs said about DropBox, storage is just a feature - not a product. MS gives away 6TB of One Drive space with the $100 a year Office 365 subscription. Office 365 has much deeper penetration that Drive.
> Google didn’t “beat” Microsoft at Office by any definition.
They beat them to online documents, spreadsheets, storage by years. Google Docs launched after they bought Write.ly in 2006. Lots of teams don't even use Office anymore and use online office like Google.
Yes lots of places still use Office but there is no denying Google beat them online and it was Microsofts share to lose. Microsoft really just got their online offerings put together nicely finally in the last maybe 5 years, they didn't want to cannibalize desktop Office and that delayed them immensely.
Before Google Docs there was only Office, OpenOffice and LibraOffice but people really only used Office. That has changed, I rarely use it unless I work with a company that is Microsoft-centric. It may change now that Office 365 is finally decent but they still want large purchases of licenses that really only is enterprise focused.
> As far “winning” mobile. $23 billion in 7 years and they still pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the primary search engine on Apple devices. Apple has made more money from Google than Google has made from Android.
There is immense value in controlling the platform which Google has. There is even more value in controlling the hardware and software platform like Apple.
Because they control Android they don't have to pay another mobile provider to be the search provider.
Don't leave out Chrome either, that was a big thing for a long time. That really came from Webkit and KDE that Apple open sourced to become Chromium and Chrome.
> Android definitely didn’t “win” against Apple. The entire Android ecosystem is a profitless race to the bottom.
Android won against Apple iOS and Microsoft Windows Phone in terms of market share. There is value in being the biggest market share, ask Microsoft with Windows.
> As far as Google Drive, like Jobs said about DropBox, storage is just a feature - not a product. MS gives away 6TB of One Drive space with the $100 a year Office 365 subscription. Office 365 has much deeper penetration that Drive.
Drive is still bigger than any effort of Microsoft. OneDrive did not compete for a long time. Dropbox even beat Microsoft. Google Drive and Dropbox pretty much own this space except for Microsoft Teams or enterprises that used Office.
Nadella fixed lots of issues in Microsoft and finally has Office 365 online in a good way, Teams, free IDEs/editors (VS and VSCode) and their new OS is really Azure which was his baby.
Microsoft is doing well in lots of areas, even Surface Pros/Books are probably beating Apple laptops right now in terms of growth. Apple doesn't want to cannibalize iPads so they don't have touch screens on their laptops still, Microsoft does and it is a solid device. Hopefully they re-enter mobile one day but right now they are too fat and happy off of profits from Android patents.
I like Microsoft, use them plenty and do lots of .NET. I also like Apple and develop on Macs/iOS devices. I also like Google and use Android and develop for that platform. They are all good in different ways.
However, you are really downplaying what Google has done.
Again we didn't even mention Chrome which did take the web by storm, which they are starting to abuse now with the ol' Microsoft embrace, extend, extinguish but they still did win the browser wars as well from an entrenched IE/Microsoft and over Firefox which was an early developer favorite of Netscape origin.
They beat them to online documents, spreadsheets, storage by years. Google Docs launched after they bought Write.ly in 2006. Lots of teams don't even use Office anymore and use online office like Google. Yes lots of places still use Office but there is no denying Google beat them online and it was Microsofts share to lose.
Being first is just a nerd victory like saying Apple was the first desktop operating system with a GUI. “Winning” in a for profit business is profit.
There is immense value in controlling the platform which Google has. There is even more value in controlling the hardware and software platform like Apple.
We know the value - $23 billion over 7 years. The fact that Google still pays Apple $8 billion a year shows that there is more value in a platform that attracts people that can afford to spend money than people who only spend $240 on a phone.
Drive is still bigger than any effort of Microsoft. OneDrive did not compete for a long time. Dropbox even beat Microsoft. Google Drive and Dropbox pretty much own this space except for Microsoft Teams or enterprises that used Office.
A “bigger effort” doesn’t put money in the bank and DropBox not only has never been profitable, they have repeatedly said that they don’t know when or if they will ever be profitable.
> We know the value - $23 billion over 7 years. The fact that Google still pays Apple $8 billion a year shows that there is more value in a platform that attracts people that can afford to spend money than people who only spend $240 on a phone.
If Google has to pay $8Bn to Apple, then all of the money Google doesn't have to pay by dint of Android existing should count as value creation by Android.
> Being first is just a nerd victory like saying Apple was the first desktop operating system with a GUI. “Winning” in a for profit business is profit.
Before Google Docs / G+ suite there was really only Office. Now everything is Google vs Office 365. Most small/medium even startups use Google Docs as it is good enough. Yes like I said, entrenched Microsoft companies use Office and Office 365 is finally good and is winning in businesses because business/marketing like Office. But Google made it to 'versus' level with Microsoft.
We also glossed over Gmail, that has been immense for attracting people to Google apps.
Apple is also in this space but the desktop market share is so low that they don't compete here.
> We know the value - $23 billion over 7 years. The fact that Google still pays Apple $8 billion a year shows that there is more value in a platform that attracts people that can afford to spend money than people who only spend $240 on a phone.
If Google has to pay Apple $8 billion for mobile search. How much would they have to pay another mobile platform if they didn't run it? Probably $5+ billion or more since it is bigger, there is still value in the platform. I can't even believe I have to state that. Apple also shows this by what Google has to pay them, platforms are value as they bring in revenue opportunities.
Android OS and devices were shoddy for a long time, but they are immensely better now. Apple does own the high-end market but that won't always be the case and there is value in the market share even if it is less per phone.
> A “bigger effort” doesn’t put money in the bank and DropBox not only has never been profitable, they have repeatedly said that they don’t know when or if they will ever be profitable.
Dropbox is probably in a more precarious situation than Google or Microsoft in terms of storage competition. To compete they probably can't make a profit for a long time and will probably end up getting purchased maybe.
You can simply not deny that Google Drive was first and is mostly winning the storage battle.
OneDrive is rarely used even in enterprise settings even at Microsoft shops. Yes entrenched Office based companies probably use it like they used sub-par Sharepoint.
For storage though, most are in Google Drive or Dropbox. Branding/usage also creates value in marketing and cross over products, obviously more for Google than Dropbox as the latter is boxed in and can only raise prices or push people to business plans.
* Before Google Docs / G+ suite there was really only Office. Now everything is Google vs Office 365. Most small/medium even startups use Google Docs as it is good enough.*
For something supposedly worth almost $1 trillion, it's not great. If you bought Google and then kept the profits, it would take 28 years before you broke even. That's longer than the company has even existed.
No, in the context of the conversation, it's an argument for a higher valuation of the entity.
The value of every corporation primarily reflects expectation of future profits. That's the reason P/E ratios differs a lot even for established companies.
As topkai22 said, it's to make the author's comparison easy to understand. But this is a chance to mention that ~50 years ago the UK abandoned its old "billion" terminology, which used to be equivalent to a trillion elsewhere (10^12), and adopted the global definition of "billion" as 10^9. I think they called 10^9 a milliard, but I've never seen it in use. For a long time after the change, you'd see English written for an international audience using a more drawn-out version of large numbers (a "million million" for example) sort of the same way we have metric next to imperial these days.
That's not what's happening here, but it's interesting.
Fun fact about long scale billion (short scale trillion): it stands for bi-million because it’s a million millions. Trillion is the same with a tri-million being a million billions.
That's cool to know. Vaguely related: I've been studying a little bit of Mandarin recently and have had trouble with their system of describing larger numbers that doesn't follow the Western groups-of-three system. For example, 万 means ten thousand, but it's actually "one of a thing described by a word representing 10^4," and you wouldn't say 十千 which literally translates to "ten of a thing described by a word representing 10^3." It's surprisingly hard to regurgitate the right labels when your brain is used to thinking in terms of 10^3, 10^6, 10^9, etc. They're all different, internally consistent systems, and as far as I can tell nothing makes one better than the rest -- except for one's own familiarity with it.
Edit: I guess you meant global as far as the English language is concerned only, ignoring the equivalent words in other languages. But even that would be wrong, as apparently Australia adopted the American usage after the UK.
In any case, it's interesting that the US diverged from the European use following the French (who since then went back to the original meaning of billion).
I'm definitely not in the world of finance, but in day to day conversation, I have to stop to think what one hundred sixty thousand million means. If I hear one hundred sixty billion, then I immediately understand. Even if I had previously heard five million then heard one hundred sixty billion, it is obvious that billion is 1000x a million which clearly makes it a bigger number. This is what I meant by unnatural.
Verbal conversation gains the context of audible emphasis on the difference. Rhetorically, you are able to say "Waymo has revenue of 5 million dollars, while Google has 160 BILLION dollars." (imagine the all caps being dramatically stated, possibly a la Dr Evil in Austin Powers).
In writing you can't do that as easily or effectively, so I think keeping the abbreviated units the same is effective writing.
In fact stating income in thousand millions is exactly how financial statements are formatted. In alphabet's 10k (at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204419...) there is a table showing that the google segment had $136,224M in revenue, while "all other bets" had a total revenue of $595M. I suspect that the SEC would have some stern words for alphabet if they expressed on measure in billions and one in millions...
This isn't an insightful comment, but I just said out loud "what's Waymo again?" after having seen the name here and there for the past decade. Kinda feels dead on arrival.
I think this gives a false impression of the value of the non Google bits of Alphabet
Currently the market cap of Alphabet is $924bn and "Waymo is worth about $105 billion" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-27/waymo-val...) which would make that 11% of the valuation and probably other bits of other bets are worth something too.