Any investor in Alphabet for the long term would hope this isn't the case. It also doesn't make sense at a time when some of their moonshots are looking as though they could pay off. (Eg. Waymo)
That said, it makes sense from the Page/Brin perspective, perhaps. It's a lot more difficult to 10x a company that's already worth $Y billion. Perhaps better to start the ventures separately in a way that is more exciting to investors.
As someone intimately familiar with the world of self-driving cars (and their investors, and their enthusiasts) - yes. There are many people who believe Waymo is going to be ridiculously valuable because they are certain (almost always based on being wildly misinformed) that it is going to magically blanket the planet in robotaxis in a handful of years.
I would love to short Waymo. And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat - who is well known for hating risky bets - I don't see a bright future for the company. And working conditions there have already deteriorated to the point where most talented people don't stay (just check glassdoor reviews if you don't believe me).
I'm pretty sure Larry and Sergei wanted their legacy to be Waymo. I'm pretty sure Ruth Porat wants her legacy to be killing Waymo.
> And now that Sergei is no longer there to shield it from Ruth Porat
Both Larry and Sergei are still on the board, so I don't see what changed? If you are thinking along that route, wouldn't it be more important what Sundar Pichai's opinion on Waymo is?
I think Larry and Sergei have been slowly removing themselves from Google/Alphabet over the past several years. You're right about Sundar having a large say in the matter, but he seems focused on search and AI (Waymo is not AI - I am too lazy to argue why right now). Ruth Porat, however, has always had it out for the projects at X - and Waymo is the big one that hemorrhages money (even by Alphabet standards) and makes pathetic revenue (even by non-Alphabet standards).
The screws are definitely going to tighten, moreso than they already have. The majority of the original talent that made up Waymo left years ago - that doesn't happen when you're on the brink of an actual breakthrough that can truly transform the world for the better. If Waymo can't pull a rabbit out of its hat, it's going to the Google graveyard. This isn't going to play out immediately, it will take a few years.
The problem is funding: let's say funding a self-driving project takes $5B-$10B and 15 years, until it starts to become a real, scalable business.
And that's probably optimistic.
Who will fund that ?
I wonder if Google was too ambitious. Maybe if they focused all the effort on making trucks that could only ride the highway safely, in limited conditions, they would have had a working business by now.
Softbank has dumped $10B in WeWork, a glorified office rental company. If you think there are no investors willing to put $10B in self driving cars, you might still be living in 2005.
That said, it makes sense from the Page/Brin perspective, perhaps. It's a lot more difficult to 10x a company that's already worth $Y billion. Perhaps better to start the ventures separately in a way that is more exciting to investors.