From countries suffering social unrest caused by climate change, electing populist leaders proposing to solve the crisis in their borders by expanding their "living space" and so on.
No, History is not a circle, it never repeats itself because the variables always change. Context matters.
> proposing to solve the crisis in their borders by expanding their "living space"
When you are in a crisis mode you don't have to time to wait for elections, the most likely result of social unrest is civil war. There are ample examples in very recent History.
History is a circle...