Edit: typed this before you add detail, which adds weight to your argument. Thanks.
I don't think so.
Google's revenues 2010: $29,321,000,000
Facebook's revenues 2010: < $1,000,000,000
Google is also solving much more challenging technical problems (not to dismiss the smart people at Facebook, but Facebook is really only interesting because of its extreme scale. Except for that, it's pretty much a CRUD app)
2) I think the best analogy is to 2003. At that time, when people started to talk about Microsoft vs. Google, I was like, "huh? What do you mean? Google does search and MS makes operating systems."
It was after the IPO, with Gmail, that Google moved on from being a category killer in search to just demolishing so many other verticals (Gmail, Maps, Docs and more recently Chrome, Android) and taking the throne from MS.
If history repeats, it will be over the next two years -- probably when Facebook launches social search, and it's really good -- that the game will have decisively shifted.
PS: I'm sure you didn't meant it this way, but pointing to the revenue scoreboard is what Microsoft employees did and still do when talking about MS vs. Google. MS still makes more money than Google and always has. The top dog title is about mindshare/rate of growth/poaching ability in addition to revenue.
I agree. Thinking about the recent goldman deal it makes me think if perhaps it could be legit! Is it possible that goldman is expecting facebook to become the de facto ad platform?
Wouldn't you say that Android is currently the biggest competitor to the iPhone?
Apple & Google are both pretty big companies and will likely be competing in the same space given the number of products they both own. Apple's iAds are a direct competitor to Adsense on mobile devices, Apple TV/Google TV, etc.
I agree that the appearance of revenues at this point make people dismiss facebook - but also take note of the very very high level talent they have been snatching up and the circle of advisors they have.
Give it 3-5 years. You will see Googles revenue slow/plateau a bit - but if Facebook can do what it thinks it can do with its userbase and dataset, it is going to be very interesting.
Also, I predict that Facebooks revenues will not skyrocket -- but rather their influence, reach and stranglehold on way too many aspects of on-line life will take deep root.
They will likely begin an acquisition play very soon which will be focused on payments, security, retail/ecomm and analytics.
While google has been a gateway to the internets information - I see facebook trying to be a funnel/traffic-cop to your online relationships interests and transactions.
I wouldn't be be surprised if facebook bought something like square.
I think that before Facebook has the chance to monetize the information they have on their users they will need to start lobbying for less privacy and we have already seen the pushbacks from its user base.
That being said, I have to agree that Facebook still has a lot of places to go, but I wouldn't put it past Google with new leadership at the top to come out fighting and bring a few new tricks to the table.
I look forward to what the future brings. Just for all that is holy get rid of the damn Facebook connect crap.
I don't think so.
Google's revenues 2010: $29,321,000,000
Facebook's revenues 2010: < $1,000,000,000
Google is also solving much more challenging technical problems (not to dismiss the smart people at Facebook, but Facebook is really only interesting because of its extreme scale. Except for that, it's pretty much a CRUD app)