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Moore’s law is pretty well on track – transistor density has been steadily increasing for decades now, and still is.



Things are still shrinking but the tempo seems to be slowing down a bit even at TSMC. Maybe we'll get our full 6 remaining doublings down to 9Å[1] but I'm not sure I would count on it, especially given that the cost of a cutting edge fab is also going up exponentially. Even if features stop shrinking that doesn't mean that price per transistor will stop going down. And we're very far from the theoretical limits of energy per computation so I tend to expect we'll move to some other computational substrate in the future.

[1]https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/technology_node

[2]http://www.futrfab.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Small-Volu...


1) Slowing is happening and at some point you run out of atoms

2) Usually people mean all of CMOS scaling (ie Dennard Scaling) when they refer to "Moore's law ". Exponential increase in power density is low key useless...


There are a fair number of folks including Gordon Moore who have said Moore's law will end in the next couple halvings.




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