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The estimate is from 2015 - Trudeau got into Power in Nov. 2015...


At its planned maximum, the carbon tax on Canadians will be $50/tonne. Canada emits 20 tonnes per capita per year, Assuming a naive calculation, that's $1000 per Canadian. So under that model, half the Canadian subsidy will be gone by 2023.

However, this simplification I'm ignores that, to protect businesses Canada has implemented output-based allocations, where the first n-tonnes per unit product of a large business are exempted, meaning that the cleanest and greenest businesses within an industry pay no carbon tax because they're below their output allocation. That prevents them from getting stomped by competitors without carbon pricing, but means a tremendous amount of GHGs in Canada will be going untaxed.

Yeah, we need to get $100 per tonne ASAP, and start forming coalitions with other countries so that we can use tariffs instead of output-based allocations to protect carbon taxed businesses from untaxed competitors.


This is why I think H.R. 763 (in the US) is a well-designed bill. It taxes everything, and has a built-in tariff to serve as incentive to other countries to implement similar carbon taxes. I hope it passes. I believe it starts out at $15 per ton, then goes up by $10 per ton each year, with adjustments based on whether we're falling short of our greenhouse gas reduction goals, or greatly exceeding them.


For reference, Canada's is $20CAD/tonne currently, going up $10/year up to a cap of 50. So the US $15 is about the same to start, but ramping up a bit faster when you figure exchange rate.




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