You’ve been able to trade petroyuan in Shanghai since early 2018. The volume there is made up almost exactly with what a less conspiracy based hypothesis would expect: domestic Chinese firms, Russians avoiding sanctions & arbitraging actors.
There has not been a mass exodus to the yuan, quite the opposite China has been manipulating it up through that entire time.
Euro denominated oil is likely to come online in the next year or 2. The E.U. started a benchmark program this summer. Roseneft (a big Russian producer) switched to Euros a couple of weeks ago.
That doesn't seem like a convincing argument against the whole petrodollar "conspiracy". It seems like there is no assurance that trading in these alternative currencies can't increase dramatically among other countries.
I think the conspiracy theory is backwards. We didn’t use hegemony to make people us petrodollars. They used petrodollars because it made the most sense. By dramatically increasing our use of sanctions we’ve turned that on its head. And we are going to see petrodollars become less important.
We aren’t going to go to war with China, Russia or the Euro zone for switching off petrodollars. The opposite conclusion is ludicrous.
There has not been a mass exodus to the yuan, quite the opposite China has been manipulating it up through that entire time.
Euro denominated oil is likely to come online in the next year or 2. The E.U. started a benchmark program this summer. Roseneft (a big Russian producer) switched to Euros a couple of weeks ago.