> I'm torn because I've definitely heard plenty of rumblings about GE Capital over the past decade so the accusations certainly seem plausible.
Back in the 1990s and maybe early 2000s, GE would 'beat' analyst profit estimates every quarter by 'a penny' per share (occasionally by a few pennies). This went on for _many_ years.
I don't have any special insight, but this always struck me as _fishy_. You have a stable of presumably competent analysts prognosticating on your next quarter's revenue and profit and you consistently beat their average estimate _by a tiny bit._ You would think that you would come in _under_ the estimate every-so-often, but that was incredibly rare and the consistency always had a whiff of impropriety.
It wasn't just GE that did this. Many Fortune-500 companies had similar behavior, so perhaps it has an innocuous explanation, but I always wondered how it was possible to consistently beat estimates like this.
There's more degrees of freedom in accounting and accounting-related matters that non-accountants tend to realize. An easy trick to explain is a big deal of some kind that is closing near the end of the quarter. If your customer doesn't care, you may be able to choose whether you close that deal this quarter, because you need the revenue this quarter, or if you want to close it next quarter because you've got this quarter's "beat" covered, and there's no great advantage to beating by just that bit more.
Obviously in this specific case, it's only a quarter's worth of flexibility; I mean this as an example, not a manual on the practice.
There's a lot of ways of borrowing against the future to show revenue now. It is suspicious, but it may not necessarily be suspicious in the "fraud" sense of they aren't making the money they claim to be making, but rather, are they eating their seed corn to get this quarter's beat? Did they pull revenue forward they "shouldn't" have? (Sometimes it seems like it's better to beat expectations by a little for several quarters, then have one big disaster quarter, than to miss by a little for several quarters.) Did they profit this quarter by failing to invest in growth that they're going to need later?
So, I wouldn't say it's an innocuous explanation exactly, but perhaps rather, there's a range of explanation that range from mostly innocuous gimmicks to the outright fraud, and it's hard to tell from the summary sheets which one you're looking at.
Back in the 1990s and maybe early 2000s, GE would 'beat' analyst profit estimates every quarter by 'a penny' per share (occasionally by a few pennies). This went on for _many_ years.
I don't have any special insight, but this always struck me as _fishy_. You have a stable of presumably competent analysts prognosticating on your next quarter's revenue and profit and you consistently beat their average estimate _by a tiny bit._ You would think that you would come in _under_ the estimate every-so-often, but that was incredibly rare and the consistency always had a whiff of impropriety.
It wasn't just GE that did this. Many Fortune-500 companies had similar behavior, so perhaps it has an innocuous explanation, but I always wondered how it was possible to consistently beat estimates like this.