They are talking about Android as compared to the iphone, but isn't Android simply the OS framework? Isn't this like comparing Windows OS to say, a piece of hardware? Aren't they two different things? Android will never kill the iphone unless a hardware manufacturer designs the hardware to run it on well.
It was Mac vs. Windows, the platform that was open to different hardware manufactors won. Mac was closed, and lost. Now it is making a comeback, but still windows outsells by an order of magnitude.
Now we have the same thing: Android, and semi-open platform, customisable, and open to OEMs to use it and customise it, while iPhone, a pretty good working device, but tied to only one form factor so far.
Same battle all over again. The only added complexity is the carriers, which in the US have too much power.
Now, of course there is Winmo, Symbian, Blackberry OS, etc... but even then on the PC wars we had Amiga, O/S2, Atari OS, BeOS...etc. and of course Unix.
PalmOS seems to be the first victim. Very similiar to Amiga on the 80s. Pretty OS, it was very good for it's time (2003), but with lack of inovation it is left behind by others.
Exactly right. And remember the other advantage Windows had over over Mac: price. Just like you can't get a supercheap Mac laptop, you can't get a <$100 iPhone, but you almost certainly will be able to get an Android at that price. Sure it will be missing stuff like touch-screen functionality, but with all the apps it will almost assuredly be a better experience than current low-end cell phones.
Price is definitely a factor, but one important difference between iPhone vs. Android and the OS wars is that Macs are set to gain a larger share of the PC market than they've ever had, with price being less of a determining factor for PC buyers these days (in the US, at least) than user experience, brand cachet, and the overall value proposition enabled by a given platform. Mac and iPod owners are going to be biased towards brand consistency and quality of product interoperability.
Don't forget that iPod owners looking to upgrade to a convergence device are also likely to be subject to brand lock-in, thanks to purchases made over iTunes. If you buy a smartphone with an eye towards replacing your iPod, and enough of your music library is in m4p format, an Android phone may simply not be an option.
...price being less of a determining factor for PC buyers these days (in the US, at least) than user experience, brand cachet, and the overall value proposition enabled by a given platform
But the US isn't the top market for cell phones at all:
At over 270 million mobile telephones, India has the second largest such phones, after China, which has more than 550 million. India have overtaken America, which has about 240 million cell-phones. Currently, India's growth is the highest in the world, higher even than China's.
I think it's less Windows vs Mac than Firefox vs Safari. And call me crazy, but my bet is on open-source. Of course, the hardware angle is missing from all that, so maybe the winner will be Android running on an iPhone...
The reason it's not already out there as open source is because Google wants to work closely with manufacturers in order to release something that people like, rather than have some cheapo manufacturer download an early version of the source and run with it, embarrassing everyone, and dimming the prospects for Android's future.
I know Samsung is working with Google to make a Google branded phone to run android; that will certainly end up being what people hold up to the iPhone.
The only glaring omission from Android so far is multi-touch - the iPhone feature that allows for actions like the two-finger pinching movement used to shrink photos.
That, and the nice white headphones. Why doesn't their OS come with headphones?
I think the idea is choice. A device maker could make a dumbed down version for mom and a power user version for you. The iPhone is somewhere inbetween.
Who says the mom would be setting up the device? It would be easy enough for your cell phone carrier to setup and customize their own interface/variant of Android phone.
A touchscreen Jitterbug phone based on Android would be pretty cool. You can make even bigger buttons, text and UI elements than the current model and eliminate almost all unnecessary functions.
Music players are very different from phones - there is a lot more innovation to go around in cell phone apps. Apple realizes this, of course, which is why we see the iPhone SDK.
