It is in fact quite plausible that lower costs for physicians could lead to more physicians and more price competition among physicians, even in USA.
It doesn't matter what seems plausible to you, what matters are the hard facts of how much is spent for what outcome, and as you'll see from those graphs, the evidence is overwhelming that the US spends a lot (both per capita and as % of GDP), and gets less in return.
How do you consider these observations to say anything about the topic of this sub-thread? Yes, we spend a lot on health care, and we're spending more all the time. That indicates that we should make some changes, but it doesn't indicate that this particular change wouldn't work. "Hard facts" that are completely irrelevant are not convincing.
How do you consider these observations to say anything about the topic of this sub-thread?
I thought it obvious, but the first hypothesis from the OP:
I'm not convinced that the government can get a better rate
From the data:
Single payer system countries have far lower costs for similar if not better outcomes.
The other hypothesis:
I think the real reason in Japan might be that costs are low because there is more competition due to more private doctors
From the data:
Japan has dramatically lower costs than the US, while having a radically different system far more similar to 'Medicare for all'. The far more private doctors comment was I think addressing irrational concerns that private healthcare would somehow disappear under medicare for all (instead of just being a lot cheaper). Japan is the proof that doesn't have to be the case.
It doesn't matter what seems plausible to you, what matters are the hard facts of how much is spent for what outcome, and as you'll see from those graphs, the evidence is overwhelming that the US spends a lot (both per capita and as % of GDP), and gets less in return.