Factory activity in Asia is a good indicator in a world where none of us can easily see the wood for the trees. Shame the article wasn't big on actual numbers.
We all have our local bubbles to contend with. In the US there are tariff taxes that affect the world but are a US thing. Then, in the UK, there is the joy of Brexit. You would not guess there was a problem if you were to be out and about in the UK this last weekend, however, read the papers and you will see stories about how that there is no inward investment, auto manufacturing is kaput and the High Street is losing many shops. Speak to some people and these indicators can be seen as unimportant, after all, isn't everyone buying online these days so the High Street demise is more of a shift to other fulfilment means, with no net loss involved? It can all be handwaved away.
With the example of Brexit the predicament can be blamed on Brexit and is therefore not part of a global recession, even if the frozen UK economy contributes to the big, global picture.
I am sure that in every market there is some local whataboutism, an ability to blame a local recession on silly politicians, a business scandal or some other local factor. In this way we could all walk into a global recession without anyone seeing it, thinking it was just us that was feeling a bit skint.
There are always people thinking we are on the verge of some mega crash. Personally I have been expecting the housing bubble to collapse for many decades but it has not happened. I have given up on that one now. I once worked in weather forecasting and, if you listened to me, then you would always have expected rain (I didn't understand low-lying clouds too well). Because of this tendency and bias that we all have it can be hard to make sense of media pundits and their forecasts of the economy. We also only listen to those that we are inclined to agree with.
There are always some indicators that are fact oriented and helpful, I think factory activity in Asia is one.
What I am surprised at is that there isn't a good indicator based on internet search activity. For instance, with the housing market in northern climes there is what the mortgage industry says for PR and then there is reality. Sales of flooring products, and by proxy, internet searches for flooring products may be a better indicator. Nobody fetishes over getting new carpets or laminate floors, people don't overly window shop for it, they just buy that stuff when they move home or have money to upgrade their existing dwelling. It is a purchase that can be easily put off. I need a 'basket' of these indicators and some Google Trends 'fu' to see the wood for the trees.
But, I'll caveat that it is AN INDICATOR, and not the only indicator...And in fact, not even sure if search activity is a good enough signal to use as an input...Or at least not in isolation. Putting my digital adversarial hat on, if i had even meager resources to organize a bot farm to cleverly submit tons of searches in one direction or another, i think that would sufficiently skew your input signal right there. Just sayin'.
We all have our local bubbles to contend with. In the US there are tariff taxes that affect the world but are a US thing. Then, in the UK, there is the joy of Brexit. You would not guess there was a problem if you were to be out and about in the UK this last weekend, however, read the papers and you will see stories about how that there is no inward investment, auto manufacturing is kaput and the High Street is losing many shops. Speak to some people and these indicators can be seen as unimportant, after all, isn't everyone buying online these days so the High Street demise is more of a shift to other fulfilment means, with no net loss involved? It can all be handwaved away.
With the example of Brexit the predicament can be blamed on Brexit and is therefore not part of a global recession, even if the frozen UK economy contributes to the big, global picture.
I am sure that in every market there is some local whataboutism, an ability to blame a local recession on silly politicians, a business scandal or some other local factor. In this way we could all walk into a global recession without anyone seeing it, thinking it was just us that was feeling a bit skint.
There are always people thinking we are on the verge of some mega crash. Personally I have been expecting the housing bubble to collapse for many decades but it has not happened. I have given up on that one now. I once worked in weather forecasting and, if you listened to me, then you would always have expected rain (I didn't understand low-lying clouds too well). Because of this tendency and bias that we all have it can be hard to make sense of media pundits and their forecasts of the economy. We also only listen to those that we are inclined to agree with.
There are always some indicators that are fact oriented and helpful, I think factory activity in Asia is one.
What I am surprised at is that there isn't a good indicator based on internet search activity. For instance, with the housing market in northern climes there is what the mortgage industry says for PR and then there is reality. Sales of flooring products, and by proxy, internet searches for flooring products may be a better indicator. Nobody fetishes over getting new carpets or laminate floors, people don't overly window shop for it, they just buy that stuff when they move home or have money to upgrade their existing dwelling. It is a purchase that can be easily put off. I need a 'basket' of these indicators and some Google Trends 'fu' to see the wood for the trees.