If negative pressure is sustained long enough, alternatives will be developed. How long has China held a dominant position in electronics assembly? Less than 20 years...and that would be generous.
So things can change, definitely not overnight, but in a few years.
Well, before China, it was Japan. They dominated the 80s and a good chunk of the 90s. They still have a lead in markets such as cameras and are fairly competitive for technologies like Flash, which they actually invented. Samsung passed Toshiba a decade ago or so.
Yeah, those have been displacing Japan along with China. I mentioned Samsung, but was mostly focusing on Japan as an example of a country whose star can and did dim, as a potential parallel for future China. It has taken longer than the few years the parent poster cited.
It's also worth noting that China still has a long way to go when you look at particular markets such as semiconductors, where export controls have slowed them down.
I agree, if there is a region with the labor force and good policy for investment plus infra and a few other things. Vietnam is a close enough option, but other options are not abundant, so more than just a few years would be a plausible answer for me.
China for long was a phenomenal combination of size, quality, and a price for workforce you can't find anywhere.
Eastern Europe - mass higher education check, everything else no
India - size yes, but nothing else, and there is "license raj" on top of that. One sweetener is the future domestic market appeal
Vietnam - mini-China, good primary and vocational education check, size OK, industry, some leftovers from pre-privatisation era, check - pretty much same as China was in that regard.
Pakistan... very cheap for sure, existing industry is nonexistent, (though Pakistan once had a backend FAB in late eighties!) and with Rupee hitting the bottom now, you can overlook how poor the logistics will be.
So things can change, definitely not overnight, but in a few years.