Cars are more and more reliable so people can hang on to them for longer. We're also at a milestone, crossing from ICEs to EVs and this may discourage people from actually committing to a new car.
Simpler than that. The car market is cyclical. When people buy a car, it takes another 5+ years before those people decide to buy another car.
It seems the last "boom" cycle was 2018 or so. So we're now entering the years where most people are NOT buying cars. In 2023 or so, all of the buyers from 2018 will be buying cars again.
There's nothing mystical about this behavior, its just how the crowds work in general.
I don't see any self-synchronising effect in crowds... In fact, if anything, instant supply and demand would reward those who buy out-of-phase with the majority.
In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. But in practice, there's a big difference.
The car auto cycle is well known and well documented. I don't think there's any good economic theory to describe why it exists... it just... exists... for whatever reason.
> instant supply and demand
Instant supply and demand certainly doesn't exist in practice, even if we assume it to exist in theory. It takes over a year for factories to be built, and when people hear news about a new car, it can take months (or even years) before they decide they want that particular car.
Humans work on a monthly time-scale, even if we assume in economics that their decisions are made instantaneously.
I feel like EV sales are also going to be heavily segmented by the basic limitations of charger available for some markets. If you keep your car on street parking because you live in a condo, an EV won't work very well for you.
