I bought a Model S last year and around the time of weedgate I decided the risk was too great and sold the car. It seems from the used market that the value has plummeted. The one I bought is easy $40k less just a year old.
Repairs and parts availability is one of the biggest risks. Could easily see situations where a small fender bender causes a total loss.
Especially now that the perf option used to cost twice as much (now the uprated brakes/wheels are part of the perf package). Now autopilot (not FSB) is included. Also the new motors mean 370 mile range is available with the 100 kwh battery. AP3/HW3 is also now shipping as standard.
So yes the rapid progress means that the older cars depreciate quickly. This is only get worse with the next refresh rumored to be fairly soon.
Last year this time some of the same models selling for $40k in the used market were $80k. These were for some of the oldest cars in the pre-owned segment.
The biggest hit to value came with the Tesla price lowering.
Id expect a 20% loss but not 50%. Porsche and Lexus don't lose 50% the first year.
I have a 4 year old s85d. A year ago I got an offer to trade in for 50k from tesla. I bet the value went way down because My ~260 range is so much less than 370.
Repairs and parts availability is one of the biggest risks. Could easily see situations where a small fender bender causes a total loss.