This is the point that so many people miss when arguing that an EV revolution is coming and others will catch Tesla. It's not that Tesla's lead is insurmountable; it's that Tesla's lead is growing, not shrinking, with each passing day.
No single feature or technology tells this story adequately but the compound effect of all of them does: it's 2019, and not a single manufacturer can produce a car that rivals a 2012 Model S.
>This is the point that so many people miss when arguing that an EV revolution is coming and others will catch Tesla. It's not that Tesla's lead is insurmountable; it's that Tesla's lead is growing, not shrinking, with each passing day.
Eventually you reach a point where everything is good enough so being better isn't much of an advantage. Like if Tesla gives you 700 mi range but Audi does 500mi, does anyone really care?
> Like if Tesla gives you 700 mi range but Audi does 500mi, does anyone really care?
In this case, yes, because current battery tech charges much faster from 0-80% of the battery, so a battery with more range than you'll use is still beneficial because it'll charge faster for the portion you do use. But I'm being snarky--that's not your point.
Tesla's advantage is far more than just range.
* The battery management system, which minimizes battery degradation (google "nissan leaf degradation")
* The manufacturing process adopted to actual EVs (and not shoehorning an EV into an ICE car design)
* The lack of dealerships and resulting ability to push software updates to cars containing new features
* The standardization of self-driving hardware -- all Teslas made since ~2016 have the camera hardware set up in the same positions
* The actual ownership of the software / UI and it actually being done well, when most other manufacturers seem to be shooting for "passable, I guess"
* The big touchscreen UI, which is (effectively) the same across all models, which makes keeping software up-to-date much easier
It's just not even close. Other manufacturers can improve battery tech, too, but these other things require bold action that traditional manufacturers are too slow / cautious / encumbered to take.
I think you're wrong about Tesla having an advantage in the non-electric parts of the car. The legacy car makers are way way better at actually building cars at a profit. If a big touchscreen was a way to do that they have the chops to pull it off (or at least one of the suppliers does).
There is/was a race between Tesla getting good at traditional car manufacturing and the legacy car makers coming up with their own EVs. It appears that Tesla is going to lose that race. Or at least not win it by enough where they will end up as one of the bigger car companies.
Nokia was better at building phones at a profit than all its competitors until Apple entered the market. Apple changed the market for what consumers expected from phones, which Nokia failed to adapt to, and the rest is history.
Traditional automakers are, indeed, much better at profitably making what consumers wanted in 2012. It's not clear how well they'll react as expectations change, driven in large part by what Tesla's shown can be done. Being a lot better at profitably making flip phones only helps while people still want flip phones. And just because everyone was using flip phones in 2006 doesn't mean they would be in 2010.
It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive.
Which goes back to the initial point about there being a race on and Tesla isn't winning it. Tesla has to increase their manufacturing by an order of magnitude before the other car companies make competitive EVs. We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over. Tesla will survive as a niche luxury brand along the lines of a BMW, but they're not going mainstream.
> It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive.
Apple had successful business in related fields before starting to sell phones, and the consumer purchase cycle for phones is much faster than cars. Unless traditional automakers take note and make big structural changes, the same pattern will happen here--only more slowly.
> We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over.
You're missing the point if you think being a good EV is the only significant differentiator Tesla has. It's probably only 1/3 of the things I love about this car that traditional automakers will be unable to compete with easily.
That eventually is a long time away. For now though, Tesla is ahead of the game.
It's like the only car that actually gives you new features after buying it. Listens to their consumers, and provides them with what they want (most of the time)
Sure, but there are other dimensions to innovate on - charging speed, self driving, active suspension, efficiency, the list goes on. And 500 miles at what price? Tesla is going for the best AND cheapest electric drivetrain.
This is the point that so many people miss when arguing that an EV revolution is coming and others will catch Tesla. It's not that Tesla's lead is insurmountable; it's that Tesla's lead is growing, not shrinking, with each passing day.
No single feature or technology tells this story adequately but the compound effect of all of them does: it's 2019, and not a single manufacturer can produce a car that rivals a 2012 Model S.