Do you think it's incorrect? It's hard for me to imagine that a good portion of the burden of this won't land on Florida and US taxpayers, in addition to whoever is holding the hot potato when the problem becomes impossible to ignore.
Florida's status as a swing state in Presidential elections means that both political parties will bail it out no matter what. The whole nation already bails out Florida via the National Flood Insurance Program, since no entity other than the federal government could possibly insure such a high frequency high risk event.
Another taxpayer casualty of the electoral college system.
To imply that Florida is the sole reason that the National Flood Insurance Program will stay is really out there. Other states along the Gulf are big recipients, and there's always the chance that a hurricane will swing up the eastern seaboard, in which case everything from Georgia to at least North Carolina will be using that program. There's also the chance of inland flooding if there's enough snowmelt or rain so that the Mississippi overflows its banks.
That being said, I agree with you that the program should go away. I'd like to have it phased out over the course of 10 years so that people can adjust to the new prices rather than have a huge shock up front.
I mean, the southern tip of FL, the outer banks of NC, and the mid gulf coast really are the problem [1, NOAA, Return Period Between Major Hurricanes]
The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names.
"In particular, the overall shortfall of $1.4 billion is attributable largely to premiums’ falling short of expected costs in coastal counties, which constitute roughly 10 percent of all counties with NFIP policies but account for three-quarters of all NFIP policies nationwide."
You know who pays the highest NFIP rates? Connecticut. The lowest? Florida.
> The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names.
The CBO is calling out FEMA's estimates of future losses as being too low. As far as the administrators of the program are concerned, premiums are set appropriately. This report doesn't really apply to this discussion, other than to highlight that the coastal counties cost significantly more (and pay significantly more) than the inland counties covered by the program.
Leading to the Homeowner_Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2013, essentially prohibiting rates from raising. Amazingly, the CBO scored this as neutral due to some offsetting surcharges elsewhere.
