>> I think people are generally good at 2nd order thinking

>> We are bad at thinking this way in groups, relatively.

Wow! This seems to answer a long-standing question I have had. I think I can now work out the mathematics of this, given appropriate amount of time. I think this is it! Thanks.

good luck to you.

I don't know that this is true.

I meet quite a lot of utopians (which are 1st order thinkers!), who assume the stated goal of a policy will be its effects.

Perhaps this is about knowledge. In domestic situations where you know how to casually infer to more distant effects, 2nd order is easier.

In politics, 2nd order is hard because people know very little and need to know very little (in their daily lives).

Politics is the poster entity for this.

Stupid 1st order: Making jails as bad as possible will deter criminals which will make everyone safer.

Good 2nd order: That doesn't work. How about we try rehabilitation and cutting the social and economic causes of crime?

Evil 2nd order: You're a snowflake. Of course it works. [I know it's nonsense, but I'm going to lie to you for profit.] How are the shares in my prison services company doing today?

Stupid 1st order: See! The authority agrees! We're right!

3rd order: So... how do we deal with the evil 2nd order people?

Everyone else: Why are you creating imaginary problems? Let's get back to the real issues!

But the “stupid first order” proposition is correct. If our policy was to brutally torture people for even the most minor infractions, and we enforced it very well, no one would ever commit a crime unless they were extremely confident that they could get away with it.

The problem is that this “cure” would be much worse than the disease.

Sometimes I wonder if people are actually really good at thinking in groups but the thought process is just too terrifying and different from what we could understand as individuals