> The cancer is very rare. Even in this high-risk population, where drinking very hot tea is extremely common, only 0.6% developed oesophageal cancer.
> Even though hot tea drinking could raise risk, the absolute risk increase would be from less than 1% to 1.2%.
> This may well be far smaller than the risk conferred from more established risk factors, such as alcohol, smoking, diet and obesity.
> The researchers have tried to account for these and other lifestyle factors that may be associated with hot tea drinking and so influencing any link.
> But as with all observational studies, it's difficult to ensure their influence is fully ruled out.
Just one data point, I’m from Argentina, we drink Mate here (as in yerba mate with a straw) the custom is to drink it very hot (around 80 deg celcius) and never knew any one with oesophageal cancer. You start drinking it as a child with sugar and cold (60 deg) and you just get used to it. After a couple of years you drink it bitter (Mate Amargo) and hot.
As for the present prospective cohort survey https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ijc.32220, I'm surprised the actual tea (processing method/brand) was not listed as a confounding factor. They mention PAHs but to the extent of their generic use of the term 'tea' throughout the Discussion section makes me question the utility:
"However, tea also contains several other compounds with unknown effects, and some potentially carcinogenic compounds may be introduced to tea when being processed (such as possible contamination of black tea with PAHs)"
I actually thought they were linking it to the temperature + the fact that mate is often smoked during processing (which is one reason I think I actually like the flavor unfortunately)
the fact that you don't know anyone with a rare cancer doesn't mean that the chances are not doubled. empirical one man observations cannot contradict a study even if the study is flawed
> FTFA "People who drank hot tea daily but didn't smoke or drink alcohol every day had no increased risk of oesophageal cancer."
Actually, it's the opposite.
From the article, "Some studies have suggested that only people who drink alcohol or smoke are at risk of cancer from drinking hot tea. This study suggests that is not the case."
The conclusion section of the article addresses some of the questions raised here. I would say the conclusion was a refreshingly well written summary of what the results mean and some outstanding questions.
Can anyone help me understand why we're even performing studies like this anymore? It would seem that all these years of "x can cause cancer" studies have just revealed that we generally know very little about what causes cancer. Is prevention really a viable avenue of control anymore? Shouldn't we just be focusing on early detection and treatment?
> The cancer is very rare. Even in this high-risk population, where drinking very hot tea is extremely common, only 0.6% developed oesophageal cancer.
> Even though hot tea drinking could raise risk, the absolute risk increase would be from less than 1% to 1.2%.
> This may well be far smaller than the risk conferred from more established risk factors, such as alcohol, smoking, diet and obesity.
> The researchers have tried to account for these and other lifestyle factors that may be associated with hot tea drinking and so influencing any link.
> But as with all observational studies, it's difficult to ensure their influence is fully ruled out.