I have recently released a paid app - which has turned up in the top 10 sports section in the UK for both iPad and iPhone. I have designed this for the very latest version of the iOS - i'm guessing i'm losing sales doing this - have you or anyone else for that matter found any statistics around the numbers of users who download the app from previous versions of the iOS ?
Unfortunately Flurry's new SDK does not collect iOS version info, so we're as much in the dark as you are.
However, 90.9% of our users are listed as having iOS4 devices - I am not sure whether this indicates the iPhone 4, or whether iOS 4 prevents flurry from detecting the device type (in which case this would be an accurate estimate of the number of devices running iOS 4)
I guess that the percentage of users with iOS 3 devices should therefore be at most 9.1% - probably less than that.
Another statistic is that 7.43% of the users had jailbroken devices - I suppose that a significant portion of them would be using iOS 3, as it is so painful to upgrade to iOS 4.