Pretty funny that you compare a Model Y to Rivian. Model Y will 100% be delivered, because 70%> of the car use the same components as the Model 3. The tooling is already under way at Gigafactory 1 and manufacturing lines being installed for motors and stamping. Tesla is still way smaller than the traditional automotive giants, but make no mistake they have a lot of experience when it comes to EVs. Even traditional automative giants admit that. Rivan has a lot more to prove.
I think a lot of people forget that Rivian has the backing of Amazon and GM though. I am not saying that Rivian is a proven car company but I would give them a much higher chance at success than I would have given Tesla 9 years ago. I fully believe that Rivian will deliver and that Tesla will also deliver so I think the comparison between the two is valid.
You are right but Amazon has invested almost $1b into Rivian and Amazon has almost as much cash ($42b) as Tesla's market cap ($50b). With GM jumping in too these two companies combined could flex and crush Tesla. Not saying this will happen (I don't think it will) but it could.
Amazon no doubt wants in on the self driving electric vehicle market to compete with Tesla, Apple and Google and heavily investing in the best EV startup other than Tesla is the easiest way into this field. But because of this I would put Rivian as only slightly behind Tesla.
Now you are right, forcing your way into a field by throwing money at the problem doesn't always ensure success, just as Windows Phone. But as with Windows Phone it does usually ensure a decent product gets to market. And that is all I am saying will happen. The likelihood of a Rivian product getting to market is just as likely as a Model Y getting to market. Both extremely high.
