An unforeseen issue with probabilistic assessments is the model of the probability space is probably inaccurate.
For example, Nassim Taleb has an argument of IQ being a single-dimentional assessment to a multi-dimensional domain.
I think it's more practical to have a possibility space (where unknown unknowns is a possibility). This removes the need to assess probabilities (which will probably be incorrect) while having being able to per-mutate through the list of possibilities. One can also do logical deductions, based on the possibility space, to assess possible strategies to explore/solve the issues at hand.
For example, Nassim Taleb has an argument of IQ being a single-dimentional assessment to a multi-dimensional domain.
I think it's more practical to have a possibility space (where unknown unknowns is a possibility). This removes the need to assess probabilities (which will probably be incorrect) while having being able to per-mutate through the list of possibilities. One can also do logical deductions, based on the possibility space, to assess possible strategies to explore/solve the issues at hand.