Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Where we're headed is pretty clear. Two big trends will drive this century - declining birth rates and rising temperatures.

The world hit "peak baby" this year. The number of babies born per year worldwide is now declining. The US hit peak baby in 2016. Japan hit peak baby in 1981. Japan, outside of Tokyo and Osaka, is emptying out.

On the rising temperature front, some areas of the world are becoming uninhabitable. Some of those areas near the equator have a lot of people in them.




Hopefully we will come to some sort of terms with being a whole lot browner and a whole lot less populous...


It's almost ironic that progressives may one day become a minority while conservatives will become a majority again, purely because traditional gender roles ensure the continuation of those values to future generations. We're not yet at the point where we can beat nature on this matter.


This intergenerational memetic strategy only works if your offspring adopt your values.


It should be clear that a non-zero percentage will do so, and those that do not will fall victim to the same diminishing population, therefore the trend holds.


A non-zero percentage, sure. But greater than 50%? That doesn’t seem obvious at all.


Conservatives in the west have 60% more children than liberals. Conservativism is also linked to specific brain structures [1]. These are arguably somewhat heritable, but of course also shaped by environment. Most children of conservatives are conservative until they reach college, where the strong liberal bias in academia changes some of their minds [2].

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/psychological-differences-be...

[2] This bias is well known by the way, this is not a conservative talking point. See Jonathan Haidt's talks on this point, and why this bias is bad for society.


It's even more extreme based on religion. Globally, the birth rate for Muslims is 2.9 children/woman.[1] (But it used to be above 4.) Haredi Jews are at 6.9 per woman, down from 7.5.[2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth [2] https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Haredi-population-tops-one...




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: