The "but..." phrasing of OP's premise makes it sound like a gamble. My point was that starting a successful business isn't about hoping some fairy grants you a perfect product & business plan. Coming up with an idea is the easy part. Executing on your idea is the hard part, and that's entirely within your own control.
I completely disagree. Ideas are extremely important. A mediocre idea with perfect execution won't get you very far. If Bezos had tried to build online store builders ala Viaweb - instead of THE online store - he would have a net worth at best of 1/10000 of where he's at now. Good ideas are exponentially better than mediocre ideas.
Founders of billion dollar businesses are extreme outliers with uncommon vision & a healthy dose of luck.
Besides, Yahoo bought Viaweb for about $50MM, and Shopify is a billion dollar company of its own. If $10MM or $50MM isn't successful, then I'll be happy to fail.
> But you'll be assuming that you're going to have a better idea in the future than the one your currently have.
"Ideas are cheap, execution is everything."