Let's say the amortized cost of a GPS tracker is, conservatively/high-end with a lifetime data plan for updates every hour: $100. Let's say the cost of mean average deployment is $10. Then the break-even point for hive theft is reached if losses are well over 7.33 (bar) %. (110/1500)
If losses are high, beekeepers will deploy them. If losses are low, deploying GPS would be more of a fear-based, emotional decision than a rational one.
The other piece of the puzzle is how meaningful the loss is; if such a theft is existentially threatening, and there's a reasonable chance of it, then it may still be deployed despite not actually saving money.
Exactly. Expected payoff is only useful if you have infinite resources. This is why most of us pay for insurance even though in the long run it's guaranteed to cost more than just self-funding any repairs or replacements.
in the long run it's guaranteed to cost more than just self-funding any repairs or replacements
If you're talking about home insurance then this is certainly not guaranteed. The primary purpose of home insurance is not in any case to safe you money on small repairs but to protect you from a total loss, say from fire.
I mean, if you are at fault in an accident where several people sustain life-changing injuries, or your home is a total loss, or whatever, then you probably did end coming out ahead with the insurance. Insurance makes the most sense for perils which would be catastrophic for you.
It depends on the distribution of thefts and % coverage.
If the losses are high enough, higher % of trackers would increase ROI (up to a point, depending if trackers were cheap enough). If losses are low enough or trackers very expensive, a few trackers here and there would insure against infrequent "cleaned out" thefts, e.g., serious illness healthcare insurance.
Only for that use case. From a logistics standpoint, which seems so important to the "modern beekeeper", it sounds like an easy thing to say yes to.
The question of "where are my bees?" can have a real-time answer and carries the benefit of knowing the temperature, humidity and other data available from remote sensors.
No need for lifetime data plan. You only equip some of the hives with trackers just when you're moving them to almond cultures where most thefts in the US occur.
If losses are high, beekeepers will deploy them. If losses are low, deploying GPS would be more of a fear-based, emotional decision than a rational one.