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Crucially here there are even countries that phased out lead at different times in different areas and saw geographically corresponding changes in crime rates. The evidence for lead:crime is phenomenal.



It might also be that whatever social change that causes these places to phase out lead also results in lower crime over time?


Yes, but that would be more amazing than lead exposure explanation.

There certainly are other factors, but lead exposure seem like the strongest.


Yes, but that [changes in lead usage being correlated with socio-economic factors] would be more amazing than lead exposure explanation.

Not really, infrastructure changes of various sorts are often correlated with socio-economic factors. There's a reason Flint, MI's water system was wantonly destroyed and not that of a wealth Connecticut Suburb.

Anyway, there are still researchers doubting whether lead was the primary cause of the 80s-2000s rise and decline of violence. Just googling, see: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3829390/

But the main thing is single causes are hard in complex things like human society.


it's likely a society that has reached the point where it has the economic means & political will to replace lead pipes is also improving schools / etc at that point


Yeah like better plumbing = less frustrated people = less crime. Hmmmmmm


Replacing lead supply lines with galvanized pipe (or PEX/(C)PVC/Copper) doesn't really improve water service except for the fact that it doesn't taint the water with lead.

Years ago I had lead pipes replaced in the building where I lived. Zero difference... except for the fact that I'd actually drink tap water.


How do you not consider drinkable tap water to be a huge deal?


The tap water is drinkable, you just wouldn't want it to be your primary source of drinking water.

Anyway, growing up middle class in the 80s and 90s, we had a filtered water spout on our sink. If you weren't poor, they were fairly common. Once lead was removed from the supply lines, we still continued to use them since it also stripped out chlorine etc.

My point is, work-arounds for leaded drinking water weren't impactful enough to cause crime themselves.

If you want to attribute a drastic decline in violent crime to drinking glasses filling slightly faster you're going to need some extraordinary evidence.


> My point is, work-arounds for leaded drinking water weren't impactful enough to cause crime themselves.

Ahh, I see your point. Places with high amounts of lead also have high numbers of old buildings predating lead paint laws, industrial runoff and/or dumping, and many other sources--see Fruitvale.


I had an apartment with lead pipes and couldn't drink raw tap water.

Surprisingly, it's not really a huge deal.


I’m assuming you’re employed? Not everyone will have a brita filter or the inclination to pay out their ass for bottled water.

EDIT: I don't mean to be a dick or even argue, I'm just pointing out that these problems do affect people, just maybe not most people through an effective combination of factors that reduces risk (where you live, whether you can afford a filter, etc). I certainly grew up on tap water and I am mildly disturbed people are ok with it causing massive mental health issues.

EDIT 2: Finally, I don't filter water I cook with; I imagine lead would still be a problem there. I probably should filter that water too in Oakland....


I always wonder if these "toxins in the tap water are tolerable" people ever eat at restaurants. Do they know where the water used to prepare food and make coffee and tea comes from?


(this was a joke by the way)




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