Assuming no discounts for frequent use, $400 is less than a car payment, insurance, maintenance, and gas would be. If there are discounts it would be even more reasonable, especially for middle class families trying to decide whether or not to get a second vehicle.
I definitely agree with you re the cost of owning a car but I don't think people will sell their car to just ride this train. They still have to alight and navigate either city using their possibly poor transit system.
Could see it making an effect on marginal[0] decisions (like buying a second car as you state) but it still sounds more to me like being used more for one off trips than for commuting. It's far to expensive for that.
One-off trips require learning a new mode of transport, so one-off are a natural weak spot of a "new" mode of transport. (how much time buffer do I need at the station, how do I conveniently pay for my ticket and so on). Getting people to switch rarely happens.
Your best bet, as a new rail line are people whose regular transportation demands change while the line is still new and shiny (e.g. new job at the far end of the line, do I drive/move/rail?). This also meshes very well with the real estate development model of financing the line.
A 24-mile trip by car would cost at least a gallon of gas each way. Call it a gallon and half since it's slow, grueling traffic. That's ~$10 a day in just fuel costs.
Plus ~12,000 fewer miles driven per year. Even if they can't get rid of their car payment/car insurance entirely the mileage saved is significant.
"Cars and light trucks sold in the United States hit a new record for fuel efficiency last year — 23.6 miles per gallon, on average"
This was cars sold in 2012, so only 6 years old. The average light vehicle is almost 12 years old. But according to some reports, the measurements in the US are different, leading to lower MPGs for the same car.
People on low wages often don't drive the most efficient cars since those are more expensive. 24mpg is not unrealistic with an old car and AC in traffic.
