I used to be of the same oppinion, but not so anymore.
I believe 3 orders of magnitude more processing power we would achieve amazing results in a decade; not AGI type of results but very close to it from our perspective.
Part of the reason is that I now believe you can simply "bruteforce" some problems with existing ML algorithms (like thousands of layers deep neural nets) but more importanly, one(not me) could test new ML algorithms that are not feasible now (I don't have any examples) and people would be able to itterate much faster in developing such algorithms.
I believe 3 orders of magnitude more processing power we would achieve amazing results in a decade; not AGI type of results but very close to it from our perspective.
Part of the reason is that I now believe you can simply "bruteforce" some problems with existing ML algorithms (like thousands of layers deep neural nets) but more importanly, one(not me) could test new ML algorithms that are not feasible now (I don't have any examples) and people would be able to itterate much faster in developing such algorithms.