Nobody in HN pays attention when you say that Apple doesn't really matter that much, but I'll try it anyway: Apple's share in the smartphone market is too small and decreasing. Source http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html
The real contenders are Android and Symbian. Blackberry is small but seems stable. Windows 7 might become a surprise. Apple will not lead the pack.
Symbian is dead - or will be as soon as dumbphones die. That leaves iOS and Android and, perhaps, RIM. For WinMo 7 to be measurable, Microsoft will have to pull one heck of a miracle.
Anyone who thinks they can extrapolate mobile data 4 years into the future is either completely ignorant on the subject or deliberately trying to deceive
The real contenders are Android and Symbian. Blackberry is small but seems stable. Windows 7 might become a surprise. Apple will not lead the pack.