I always get a laugh out of people who get excited about this, I think the far more interesting statistic would be stickiness factors - once you are on a phone platform, how likely are you to stay. For example, what percentage of people get an iPhone and then when their 2 year contract expires - get another iPhone because they love it (despite AT&T). It is hard to judge Android in that context right now because for all the noise it has made in the past year it is still relatively new in the scope of phone devices and carrier contracts. I think RIM has been pretty strong historically in this kind of metric and iPhone has proven well here too.
On Stickiness - It doesn't look good for RIM (this was back in March):
Some 40% of Blackberry users, according to CrowdScience, prefer the iPhone as their next smartphone purchase. Even more, some 32% of Blackberry users said that they would drop their Crackberry for the latest Android offering, the Nexus One.
I expect all the phones will become linux but you won't know.
The underlying core OS will be a linux derivative, but the layers on top will vary so much that switching from one brand to another will be the same difference as switching between Symbian and Motorola-OS is now.
Great point. I'd also like to know how people actually use the devices. How many people download apps regularly, how many minutes they spend using the web browser daily. I bet you'd see some really differences between the platforms.
