Ah another prediction post. I've been mulling over a public accountability ledger (AAAS anyone?) for a time now.
The idea formed while reading The Motley Fool "analysts" make arguments for or against a certain position. As I began to read regularly I started to trust certain authors and ignore others, yet I was filtering on how much I agreed with their arguments instead of how often their predictions were correct.
Enter a service that records public predictions then verifies them X days/months/years later, keeping track of some metric like a "correctness score" for each predictor. Could be an interesting, tech-light side project.
There are a few startups doing prediction markets on blockchain. I think most if not all of them are doing KYC and following all the regulations. Not sure why it needs blockchain in that case.
The idea formed while reading The Motley Fool "analysts" make arguments for or against a certain position. As I began to read regularly I started to trust certain authors and ignore others, yet I was filtering on how much I agreed with their arguments instead of how often their predictions were correct.
Enter a service that records public predictions then verifies them X days/months/years later, keeping track of some metric like a "correctness score" for each predictor. Could be an interesting, tech-light side project.