To be clear, they analyzed the likelihood that the Roadster would hit a planet (exceedingly small), not the likelihood that the Roadster is carrying biological life from Earth (which is exceedingly high).
We have very different definitions of extended periods of time. Elon's talking about it orbiting for millions of years. It's definitely not going to hit anything anytime soon.
That is still a good bet to make, it's very hard to hit anything even if you spent considerable effort specifically trying to. Also, there wasn't an intended orbit as much as there was a general direction and an "empty the tank" burn.
Yeah I saw that in another comment further down the chain. With all the hype around the Mars shot I assumed the ability to accurately place the car in orbit was a worthwhile goal. Not being a rocket scientist I wasn't aware that just knowing how far the thing can go is equally (or more?) interesting.
