they've been retiring for years. 1945 births are 73 now, well into retirement age. boomers will start retiring over the span of 2007 to 2034, depending on when they were born and the age they choose to retire at. they'll then be drawing down their retirement funds for decades.
are you trying to suggest that this ongoing multidecadal process will constitute a large "withdrawl event"?
What does it look like when a large group of people start selling a large amounts of stock directly into a buy wall?
Fear of an insolvent retirement can trigger this behaviour which then can compound on itself as other retirement plans are jeopardized. An entire new generation of wealth giving up on prior security and stock distributions in favor of new markets can also trigger this, such as what almost happened in South Korea with crypto currencies.
Hope none of this happens of course, but please be aware of the risks you are implicitly taking.
My retirement is primarly S&P at this time. Of course a 20% correction could always be around the corner especially with the market being so high for so long.
South Korea has a much different demographic than the United States. Samsung plays a large part of the whole countries GDP.
Insolvent retirement is actually a fear of anyone. Primarily because you don't know when you will die. So, how long do you accept the inherent risk and start making your assets more liquid.
I really think that Baby boomers retiring isn't as big as an issue as the consumer credit market and student loan credit. It seems right now that some of the S&P's upside is the fact that its on the backs of people putting their new toys on credit cards and finance plans. I don't think that this can last forever and also the fact that the things they put on them keep on lasting longer and longer.
But, for my retirement I'm pretty long on S&P (I'm only 30 years old). I am not going to pull out at the moment and timing the market for things like that is hard for me to fathom. Taking defensive positions is more for actually Baby Boomers and people that are day trading. As you say that this correction will be triggered by Baby boomers retiring the only thing that actually counters that is medical science. I have a few coworkers in their 70s and they look and act like 50 year olds.
There is a massive generational theft that's been happening over many centuries. Property prices inflating along with the rising cost of education and loans are further rigging the system towards the older, wealthy and established.
Instead of this trend slowing, it's accelerating at the expense of class mobility for the young, poor and intelligent. This disillusions these individuals en masse.
Where have disillusioned intelligent people recently been life-changingly rewarded for their efforts? Cryptocurrencies have done so, loudly. In fact, there are developer celebrities in many of these communities.
The choice to the young and intelligent:
Seemingly immediate power, prestige, and potential class mobility versus an stressful period of self improvement that causes extreme debt (college).
The game needs to be better for the young and intelligent or they are going to play a different one. Many already are.
I'm extremely long on cryptocurrency for this (and other) reasons. For a sense of time scale, I have an iota retirement plan that begins distribution in 10 years and lasts 35.
Why do you think that Cryto-currencies are fundamentally different to the internet boom which made 20-somethings like Larry Page/Sergy Brin/Mark Zuckerberg some of the richest people on earth in only 10 to 20 years?
I’m sure plenty will get rich on Cryto. I’m unconvinced that this time that makes it different for some fundamental reason.
The ease of access to capital for good ideas without any of the bullshit involved in startup fund raising is what has convinced me of this. It really doesn't matter what ivy league school the CEO went to, it's outweighed by the idea, the ability to execute and the ability to convince others to contribute resources.
Crypto is like the internet boom if the boom was more distributed, as anyone could take part in investment from the seed round.
they've been retiring for years. 1945 births are 73 now, well into retirement age. boomers will start retiring over the span of 2007 to 2034, depending on when they were born and the age they choose to retire at. they'll then be drawing down their retirement funds for decades.
are you trying to suggest that this ongoing multidecadal process will constitute a large "withdrawl event"?