"add one more new factor, like the failure of Windows Vista for example, and you may have that critical mass for a new collapse"
Forgive me, but I don't see the connection. How would the failure of Windows Vista do anything but help applications that run on the web? I can imagine some large things that could hurt this boom (economic collapse, maybe), but nothing small.
Web 2.0 has a lot of hype right now, but that doesn't make it marketing fluff. There is real substance here (and real profits, real innovation, and real users).
In contrast: here is a quick story about a company that I interviewed with in 1998. I don't remember the name; they were located South of Market in a really nice loft with lots of brick, glass, and chrome. Free lunch every day, free beverages, lots of perks. The business model: we are going to get your website's customers to fill out surveys. You are going to pay us for this. We will get the customers to fill out surveys by rewarding them with frequent-flier miles. I remember three things about this company, years later: how nice their loft was, how stupid and convoluted their business model was, and how arrogant they seemed to be about it. They acted like they were already a success.
In contrast, btw, the startup I did join was operating out of a cluttered office in Palo Alto that they'd got a really good deal on. Junk was everywhere, and the Founder/CEO asked me if I minded. I told him, "hey, it looks like a real startup." That company is still in business today. Frequent-Flier-Miles-for-Surveys, Inc: not so much.
Forgive me, but I don't see the connection. How would the failure of Windows Vista do anything but help applications that run on the web? I can imagine some large things that could hurt this boom (economic collapse, maybe), but nothing small.
Web 2.0 has a lot of hype right now, but that doesn't make it marketing fluff. There is real substance here (and real profits, real innovation, and real users).
In contrast: here is a quick story about a company that I interviewed with in 1998. I don't remember the name; they were located South of Market in a really nice loft with lots of brick, glass, and chrome. Free lunch every day, free beverages, lots of perks. The business model: we are going to get your website's customers to fill out surveys. You are going to pay us for this. We will get the customers to fill out surveys by rewarding them with frequent-flier miles. I remember three things about this company, years later: how nice their loft was, how stupid and convoluted their business model was, and how arrogant they seemed to be about it. They acted like they were already a success.
In contrast, btw, the startup I did join was operating out of a cluttered office in Palo Alto that they'd got a really good deal on. Junk was everywhere, and the Founder/CEO asked me if I minded. I told him, "hey, it looks like a real startup." That company is still in business today. Frequent-Flier-Miles-for-Surveys, Inc: not so much.