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Still, there was one clear and strong sign of a bubble before it collapsed: most public dot-coms gave zero dividends, or actually a tiny symbolic sum close to zero. That was a signal for any smart investor to make money now and run away.


More to the point, most public dot-coms had zero earnings, which is even more of a signal for the smart investor to take the money and run. Over the long run, stock prices track earnings. Zero earnings = zero stock price.


Not exactly. Dividends is what attracts investors (well, real and smart investors), while stock prices is a measure of people's desire to have shares, as well as their sympathy towards that company.

In other words, stock price is a matter of auction, while dividends is a better indicator of whether your company can make money or not.


Dividends don't mean that much: Microsoft in its dominant years (when they had 40%-plus margins and were raking in the cash) never paid a dividend (they did so only recently).


As far as I know Microsoft always did pay dividends, always, and never stopped doing that. Can be checked easily.


No, the first time MS ever paid a dividend was in 2003: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/104643_microsoft17.shtml

Not paying a dividend is not unusual in the tech industry.


I was wrong, sorry.


Growth companies do not pay dividends, as a rule. The fact that these companies were having trouble getting anywhere near profits -- that was indeed a real problem. (Also, the fact that they were public at all was a real problem for them, since public investors want profits sooner than later.)




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