> than I think Silicon Valley as we know it (knew it) is dead
Didn't you hear? It died with DrKoop.com, eToys, Pets.com, Webvan, et al.
Silicon Valley has been a constant target for that premise for four decades. It's nothing more than people wishing for ill upon something because they dislike it, entirely separating what's actually likely to happen from what they want to have happen.
Here's what is actually going to happen.
Silicon Valley is overflowing with capital, experience, talent and a high tolerance for risk. There is no hint that any of those things is in meaningful decline today. Over the coming 20 years, new tech giants will be created there. Then someone will be saying the exact same thing you just said, just as 16 and 25 and 37 years ago.
If the landscape of VC's has changed so drastically that the only way to get a piece of the capital is by planning your exit strategy (to a tech giant) before you've done anything meaningful, then I do think Silicon Valley has changed for the worse (no, I did not literally mean it's dead).
Where did the unicorns go? All I see are the same ones that were here five years ago.
the only way to get a piece of the capital is by planning your exit strategy
VCs have always needed founders to have an exit in mind, but 20 years ago it just wasn't vocalised. There was never a time when VCs would put money in to a business that didn't have a clear way for them to get their money+profit out again. The dot.com bubble made everyone believe an IPO was the obvious way to cash out. When that bubble popped most founders started to see the exit as acquisition. That's all.
To be honest, the startup scene has changed a great deal over the past few years. When I did my first startup you could raise a seed round with nothing more than an idea; I got in to an accelerator before we'd even spoken to a potential customer let alone made an actual sale. Now you're unlikely to get very far with investors until you've proved the idea and got some significant traction. The level of risk people are willing to accept is really low. It's a shame, but it's quite understandable.
Didn't you hear? It died with DrKoop.com, eToys, Pets.com, Webvan, et al.
Silicon Valley has been a constant target for that premise for four decades. It's nothing more than people wishing for ill upon something because they dislike it, entirely separating what's actually likely to happen from what they want to have happen.
Here's what is actually going to happen.
Silicon Valley is overflowing with capital, experience, talent and a high tolerance for risk. There is no hint that any of those things is in meaningful decline today. Over the coming 20 years, new tech giants will be created there. Then someone will be saying the exact same thing you just said, just as 16 and 25 and 37 years ago.