The Hope Function? https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/1994-falk | Hacker News

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		gwern on July 31, 2017 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Lindy effect The Hope Function? https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/1994-falk

dmurray on July 31, 2017 [–]

Yes, this is it exactly! Even the framing of it as waiting for a bus is given as one of the examples, "Problem 2, The Standard Wait Problem" but the other examples also have similar behaviour.

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