As someone with a CS degree, I agree with you, to an extent. This is more an issue of Baynesian probability. From what I've seen in industry, your run-of-the-mill self-taught hacker is somewhat worse than a high-quality CS graduate--many of them were not making the crafty calculus you describe, they were just too unmotivated to attend college.

You also have to consider that many people do not attend college out of a pure monetary cost-benefit analysis. Besides, even if one did, it's heavily subsidized by Uncle Sam, so until the bubble hits its peak* (like housing), it's still a fairly safe bet.

*I believe humanities and other equally non-vocational degrees have already peaked.