I understand you have declared we are at an impasse so I will just take the "last word". Your second paragraph is mere assertion. I assert the opposite. The existence of extreme outliers is exactly what we see in statistical distributions all the time. Being able to identify them in retrospect is childs play.Doing it in advance is the trick. That fund very likely does have great skills and plans at work that happen to have been met with circumstances that made them work. Yes you can attribute that to skill.