I wouldn't count out the likes of Walmart. They're making big strides and taking ecommerce and digital marketplaces ever-more seriously.
It seems like it will be much easier for Walmart to close the gap against Amazon than vice-versa; Walmart has already done the harder part of getting a warehouse within 10 miles of most populated areas.
Californians or people in other anti-Walmart areas may not realize the nexus that Walmart represents for many Americans. In most places that are not actively anti-Walmart, it is one of the most frequent touchpoints for virtually everyone.
Amazon's retail operation is being threatened from Prime-like shipping offerings (free 2 day) from lots of online stores, including Walmart. Walmart can also often allow same-day pickup at a local store, whereas the only hope of getting something similar on Amazon is living within Prime Now range.
Amazon is also hurting its reputation as a retailer by allowing so much counterfeit material through FBA.
When you take away the retail core of Amazon, I'm not sure what consumer-facing value you really have left. They have Echo, but that's pretty meh. They have a crappy Netflix ripoff, which may hold some attention, but without a reason to shop at Amazon, the reason to use Prime Video is diminished. Google has them nicked pretty good on web and mobile platforms. You sort of get stuck with a group of loose things that are kinda good, but not really enough to hold interest independently, IMO.
If Walmart et al go in for the kill, I think Amazon's prospects as a consumer brand are weak. I suspect the only thing that keeps Walmart from seriously weakening Amazon is a dissonance between corporate values that keep them from competing on the same wavelengths (see Clayton Christensen).
Of course, AWS will continue to make gobs and gobs of money for the foreseeable future, but there's nothing really inherent about that either. Google is laying the foundation to plow over them in cloud via Kubernetes. With the right marketing buzz, AWS can be cast as outmoded and overpriced and hurt significantly on that front too.
I think you're missing large parts of Amazon's consumer-facing value.
First and foremost, they have Kindle. To a first approximation this means that "everyone" who reads ebooks uses part of their ecosystem (even people who mostly read on other platforms use Kindle for exclusives, past purchases, etc.). And that fortress has only grown with Comixology and Audible. All of which are still DRMed, so the platform lock-in is huge.
Second, I think you've missed the unique selling point of Prime Video. It's not just a crappy Netflix ripoff or an iTunes ripoff, it is the only platform that seamlessly integrates subscribed videos and purchased videos. So, for example, done with the free Season 1, but Season 2 is in the middle of its initial broadcast? You can catch up by buying the episodes you missed. Grumpy that something dropped out of Prime Video lineup? You can buy that too. And so on. My understanding is that this partially extends to add-on cable channels, but I haven't actually tried that.
Third, they have the same seamless subscription and purchased mix with digital music. That isn't as special as Prime Video because Google and Apple have that mix too and the triumph of DRM-free music makes platform-switching much less painful. To the extent that Amazon has a special advantage here (AutoRip), that does depend on the retail core.
I think you dramatically underestimate the advantages Amazon has. If Walmart et al go in for the kill, I would not like their odds.
It's much easier (maybe too easy) for anyone to sell on Amazon compared to Walmart.com. This allows Amazon to alway have a huge selection with a bunch of sellers competing to offer the lower price. This is going to let Amazon stay in front until the other companies catch up but it might be too late by then.
Walmart has a third-party reselling program now too, and they recently acquired Jet.com, which also has one. Most big online retailers are getting one because it's very lucrative.
FBA is not unique, it's just the best known. Amazon's laxness is coming back to bite them, as more and more stories proliferate about the receipt of counterfeit Chinese goods from "official" Amazon inventory (due to commingling).
At some point, and they're already working on getting there with their opt-in brand controls, Amazon going to be as restricted as other retail outlets. Legal intricacies around trademarks, warranties, merchantability, and the meaning of a "New" product make it risky to allow any "unauthorized" distributors for anything that people would want to buy.
It seems like it will be much easier for Walmart to close the gap against Amazon than vice-versa; Walmart has already done the harder part of getting a warehouse within 10 miles of most populated areas.
Californians or people in other anti-Walmart areas may not realize the nexus that Walmart represents for many Americans. In most places that are not actively anti-Walmart, it is one of the most frequent touchpoints for virtually everyone.
Amazon's retail operation is being threatened from Prime-like shipping offerings (free 2 day) from lots of online stores, including Walmart. Walmart can also often allow same-day pickup at a local store, whereas the only hope of getting something similar on Amazon is living within Prime Now range.
Amazon is also hurting its reputation as a retailer by allowing so much counterfeit material through FBA.
When you take away the retail core of Amazon, I'm not sure what consumer-facing value you really have left. They have Echo, but that's pretty meh. They have a crappy Netflix ripoff, which may hold some attention, but without a reason to shop at Amazon, the reason to use Prime Video is diminished. Google has them nicked pretty good on web and mobile platforms. You sort of get stuck with a group of loose things that are kinda good, but not really enough to hold interest independently, IMO.
If Walmart et al go in for the kill, I think Amazon's prospects as a consumer brand are weak. I suspect the only thing that keeps Walmart from seriously weakening Amazon is a dissonance between corporate values that keep them from competing on the same wavelengths (see Clayton Christensen).
Of course, AWS will continue to make gobs and gobs of money for the foreseeable future, but there's nothing really inherent about that either. Google is laying the foundation to plow over them in cloud via Kubernetes. With the right marketing buzz, AWS can be cast as outmoded and overpriced and hurt significantly on that front too.